Measurement Without Theory: A Response to Bailey and Collins

Abstract

Bailey and Collins (forth.) argue that Greenwood, Seshadri and Vandenbroucke (2005)'s hypothesis that the baby boom was partly due to a burst of productivity in the household sector is not supported by evidence. This conclusion is based upon regression results showing that appliance ownership is negatively correlated with fertility. They also argue that the Amish, who limit the use of modern technology, had a baby boom. First, it is demonstrated that a negative correlation between appliance ownership and fertility can arise naturally in Greenwood et al.'s model. Second, evidence is presented casting doubt upon the presumed technological phobia of the Amish.Amish, appliances, baby boom, Bailey and Collins, fertility, model laboratory, Monte Carlo simulations, regressions