El mercado de bienes y los mercados financieros en economías con sistema bancario dolarizado

Abstract

The private commercial banking and a widespread foreign currency market are the central institutions that characterize the financial system of many Latin American countries. In these economies, the stock markets still don't have a great macroeconomic importance and the markets for government issued bonds are is in the middle of their development. In this paper a macroeconomic model is presented where the core of the financial system is constituted by banks. Banks accept deposits and grant credits as much in domestic currency as in foreign currency, and the flows of short term capitals have their origin in the external indebtedness of the local banks. The starting point of this type of models is the old Mundell-Fleming, which allows us to link the real sector with the financial system, in a world opened to the international trade of goods and financial capitals. In an economy where the firms and the families have their debt in foreign currency, if we consider that the real load of the debt influences private expenditure, a devaluation, under a fixed exchange rate regime, or under an expanding monetary policy in a regimen of flexible exchange rate, can increase the real exchange rate, elevate the real load of the debt and, if this effect is more important than the Marshall-Lerner effect, the devaluation or the expansive monetary policy can have a recessive effect on the level of economic activity.