Houston, Christy M.

Richardson, James W.

Smith, Edward G.

Womack, Abner W.

English

Research Papers in Economics

Method for Calculation of Counter Cyclical Payments Using 
State and National Trigger Levels (Major Crops)
Briefing Paper 01-5
James W. Richardson
Edward G. Smith
Abner W. Womack
Christy Houston
Agricultural and Food Policy Center
Department of Agricultural Economics
Texas Agricultural Experiment Station
Texas Agricultural Extension Service
Texas A&M University
June 2001
College Station, TX 77843-2124
Telephone:  (979) 845-5913
Fax:  (979) 845-3140
Web Site:  http://www.afpc.tamu.eduCounter Cyclical Trigger Level Calculation
How to Calculate
(1) National and state yields per planted acre (Table 1 & 2)
(2) National season average price (Table 1 & 2)
(3) Base period that gives highest level of protection
• (1994-1998) Olympic average
• (1995-1999) Olympic average
(4) Calculate market returns for each year at state and national level (Table 3 & 4)
• Market returns = U.S. price times state & national yield
(5) Given market returns in tables 3 & 4 calculate the olympic average for each state and
the nation for the appropriate Base period
(6) Market returns per planted acre used to calculate CCP payments
Texas Arkansas California Louisiana Mississippi Missouri U.S.
OA (1994-98) $511.70 $518.10 $680.60 $421.40 $520.10 $468.50 $525.60
OA (1995-99) $511.70 $518.10 $680.60 $421.40 $520.10 $468.50 $525.60
Calculation Process for Simulating Total (Texas) Receipts per Planted Acre of Rice 2001. 
(Rounding may cause results to deviate:  Table 5)
(1) Expected market returns
5 year average yield 96-00 59.29 cwt./acre
FAPRI U.S. season average price x        $6.29 cwt.
Estimated market returns/acre = $372.93 per acre
(2) Expected CCP payment
Counter cyclical payment $511.70
Estimated market returns -      $372.93
= $138.73 acre(3) Conversion to market receipts $/cwt.
Expected CCP payment $138.73
Texas average yield  ÷        59.29 cwt./acre
CCP rate per cwt. = $2.34 cwt.
(4) LDP payment assuming mean prices
FAPRI Adjusted world price 2001 $3.99 cwt.
Rice loan rate $6.50 cwt.
LDP rate = $2.514 cwt.
(5) Base AMTA calculation
Base AMTA rate 2.10 cwt.
Texas 1996 farm program yield  x 49.42 cwt./acre
Payment fraction x .85
AMTA payment per acre = $88.22 per base acre
Adjustment per base AMTA acre x 1.27
AMTA per planted acre = $112.14 per adjusted planted acre
FSA yield ÷        59.29
AMTA dollars per cwt. = $1.89 cwt.
(6) Total receipts per cwt. from all sources
From (3) $2.34 CCP per cwt.
From (4) $2.51 LDP per cwt.
From (5) $1.89 AMTA per cwt.
From (1) $6.29 Market price per cwt.
$13.04 cwt.
The $13.04/cwt. would be equivalent to a producer who received a $2.30/cwt. premium
over their $6.50/cwt. loan rate plus the CCP and the AMTA payment.
(7) If the formula for computing BASE acreage changes, the data in Table 6 shows state-
by-state impacts relative to the current BASE.Table 1.  State Level Yields and National Prices used for the 1994-1998 Olympic Average
Year Yld/Planted Yld/Planted Yld/Planted Yld/Planted Yld/Planted Yld/Planted Yld/Planted US Price
Texas Arkansas California Louisiana Mississippi Missouri US US Price
1980 42.0 40.5 63.9 33.8 36.9 41.8 43.2 12.80
1981 46.9 44.6 68.2 40.4 43.5 40.3 47.8 9.05
1982 46.8 42.3 66.4 41.5 40.4 44.8 46.6 7.91
1983 43.1 42.3 70.0 37.7 39.8 40.3 45.5 8.57
1984 49.2 45.6 70.0 41.3 42.4 45.4 49.0 8.04
1985 54.7 51.5 72.1 43.5 52.9 48.1 53.7 6.53
1986 62.3 52.5 76.4 45.1 53.5 50.4 56.0 3.75
1987 58.8 52.0 74.7 45.0 50.5 53.2 55.0 7.27
1988 59.7 53.1 69.4 44.2 52.0 50.4 54.5 6.83
1989 56.7 55.5 78.0 42.5 55.8 50.7 56.6 7.35
1990 59.7 48.4 76.0 47.7 55.9 40.9 53.9 6.70
1991 59.7 51.4 84.8 44.2 54.8 48.4 55.3 7.58
1992 57.7 54.2 84.6 45.8 56.0 45.9 56.6 5.89
1993 53.6 48.5 82.4 44.2 51.9 43.4 53.5 7.98
1994 59.8 56.2 84.7 47.1 58.6 49.2 59.0 6.78
1995 55.7 54.1 75.7 45.6 53.6 49.9 55.7 9.15
1996 61.6 61.0 74.6 48.5 59.4 54.4 60.8 9.96
1997 54.8 56.6 82.2 46.1 57.5 50.8 58.6 9.70
1998 55.6 57.4 68.2 44.9 57.6 51.3 56.1 8.89
1999 58.8 58.3 72.0 49.7 56.2 53.4 58.3 6
2000 65.7 60.6 78.7 48.5 58.5 53.7 62.4 5.78
Table 2.  State Level Yields and National Prices used for the 1995-1999 Olympic Average
Year Yld/Planted Yld/Planted Yld/Planted Yld/Planted Yld/Planted Yld/Planted Yld/Planted US Price
Texas Arkansas California Louisiana Mississippi Missouri US US Price
1980 42.0 40.5 63.9 33.8 36.9 41.8 43.2 12.80
1981 46.9 44.6 68.2 40.4 43.5 40.3 47.8 9.05
1982 46.8 42.3 66.4 41.5 40.4 44.8 46.6 7.91
1983 43.1 42.3 70.0 37.7 39.8 40.3 45.5 8.57
1984 49.2 45.6 70.0 41.3 42.4 45.4 49.0 8.04
1985 54.7 51.5 72.1 43.5 52.9 48.1 53.7 6.53
1986 62.3 52.5 76.4 45.1 53.5 50.4 56.0 3.75
1987 58.8 52.0 74.7 45.0 50.5 53.2 55.0 7.27
1988 59.7 53.1 69.4 44.2 52.0 50.4 54.5 6.83
1989 56.7 55.5 78.0 42.5 55.8 50.7 56.6 7.35
1990 59.7 48.4 76.0 47.7 55.9 40.9 53.9 6.70
1991 59.7 51.4 84.8 44.2 54.8 48.4 55.3 7.58
1992 57.7 54.2 84.6 45.8 56.0 45.9 56.6 5.89
1993 53.6 48.5 82.4 44.2 51.9 43.4 53.5 7.98
1994 59.8 56.2 84.7 47.1 58.6 49.2 59.0 6.78
1995 55.7 54.1 75.7 45.6 53.6 49.9 55.7 9.15
1996 61.6 61.0 74.6 48.5 59.4 54.4 60.8 9.96
1997 54.8 56.6 82.2 46.1 57.5 50.8 58.6 9.70
1998 55.6 57.4 68.2 44.9 57.6 51.3 56.1 8.89
1999 58.8 58.3 72.0 49.7 56.2 53.4 58.3 6.00
2000 65.7 60.6 78.7 48.5 58.5 53.7 62.4 5.78Table 3.  Years and Data used to calculate the Base for a CCP paid on Total Market Receipts per Planted Acre
Olympic Average 94-98
Year Texas Arkansas California Louisiana Mississippi Missouri US
($/Planted Acre)
1994 405.7 381.1 573.9 319.5 397.5 333.7 399.9
1995 509.2 495.0 692.4 417.2 490.7 456.4 509.7
1996 613.4 607.3 743.0 483.2 591.9 541.4 605.2
1997 531.4 549.0 797.2 447.6 557.9 493.0 568.0
1998 494.3 510.5 606.3 399.5 511.8 455.9 499.1
1999 352.6 349.9 431.9 298.1 336.9 320.5 350.1
2000 379.7 350.1 455.0 280.3 337.9 310.3 360.4
Sum 94-98 2554.0 2542.8 3412.9 2067.0 2549.8 2280.5 2582.0
Min 94-98 405.7 381.1 573.9 319.5 397.5 333.7 399.9
Max 94-98 613.4 607.3 797.2 483.2 591.9 541.4 605.2
Olympic Average 94-98 511.7 518.1 680.6 421.4 520.1 468.5 525.6
Table 4.  Olympic Average 95-99
Year Texas Arkansas California Louisiana Mississippi Missouri US
($/Planted Acre)
1995 509.2 495.0 692.4 417.2 490.7 456.4 509.7
1996 613.4 607.3 743.0 483.2 591.9 541.4 605.2
1997 531.4 549.0 797.2 447.6 557.9 493.0 568.0
1998 494.3 510.5 606.3 399.5 511.8 455.9 499.1
1999 352.6 349.9 431.9 298.1 336.9 320.5 350.1
2000 379.7 350.1 455.0 280.3 337.9 310.3 360.4
Sum 95-99 2501.0 2511.7 3270.9 2045.6 2489.2 2267.3 2532.2
Min 95-99 352.6 349.9 431.9 298.1 336.9 320.5 350.1
Max 95-99 613.4 607.3 797.2 483.2 591.9 541.4 605.2
Olympic Average 95-99 511.7 518.1 680.6 421.4 520.1 468.5 525.6Table 5.  Calculations for Simulating Total Receipts per Planted Acre of Rice in 2001
Texas Arkansas California Louisiana Mississippi Missouri US
(cwt/planted acre)
5 Year Average Yield 96-00 59.29 58.78 75.14 47.55 57.83 52.72 59.23
US Price
FAPRI Mean Price for 2001 Jan 2001 Baseline 6.29
Expected Value for the Value of Market Receipts for 2001
Texas Arkansas California Louisiana Mississippi Missouri US
($/planted Acre) 372.93 369.70 472.61 299.11 363.73 331.58 372.58
Expected Value of CCP per Planted Acre for two Olympic Average Bases ($/planted Acre)
Olympic Average 94-98 or 95-99 138.73 148.43 207.98 122.32 156.41 136.87 153.05
Convert the CCP $/planted acre to a $/Cwt.
Expected CCP per planted acre 138.73 148.43 207.98 122.32 156.41 136.87 153.05
Average Yield 1996-00 59.29 58.78 75.14 47.55 57.83 52.72 59.23
CCP per Cwt. 2.34 2.53 2.77 2.57 2.70 2.60 2.58
Calculate the Market Receipts at the Means as $/cwt.
Average Yield 1996-00 59.29 58.78 75.14 47.55 57.83 52.72 59.23
FAPRI Average Price 2001 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29
Receipts per planted acre 372.93 369.70 472.61 299.11 363.73 331.58 372.58
Receipts per cwt. 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29 6.29
LDP Assuming Mean Prices
FAPRI Average Price 2001 6.29
Factor for AWP 0.6316
Adjusted World Price 2001 3.99
Rice Loan Rate 6.5
LDP Rate 2.514 2.514 2.514 2.514 2.514 2.514 2.514
Base AMTA Calculation by State
Base AMTA Rate 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Farm Program Yield 49.42 45.47 68.10 40.81 41.53 45.95 48.17
Program Fraction 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85
AMTA Payment per Base Acre 88.22 81.17 121.56 72.84 74.13 82.01 85.98
Base Acres (1,000) 597.66 1671.00 597.18 770.65 375.95 140.04 4182.01
Planting Intentions for 2001 (1,000) 220.00 1400.00 520.00 540.00 225.00 185.00 3290.00
Base to Planted Acre Fraction 2.717 1.194 1.148 1.427 1.671 0.757 1.271
Assume each planted acre carries an additional   1.27112674772036    base acres
Base AMTA per planted acre  112.14 103.17 154.52 92.59 94.22 104.25 109.30
Average Yield 1996-00 59.29 58.78 75.14 47.55 57.83 52.72 59.23 Mkt Rec 
Convert Base AMTA to $/cwt 1.89 1.76 2.06 1.95 1.63 1.98 1.85 +LDP
Summarize the Total Revenue +Base AMTA
Total Revenue per cwt. 13.04 13.08 13.63 13.32 13.14 13.38 13.23 13.23
Added AMTA of $2.25/cwt  2.25
Added AMTA per Base Yield 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
Farm Program Yield 49.42 45.47 68.10 40.81 41.53 45.95 48.17
Program Fraction 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85
Added AMTA per Base Acre 94.52 86.96 130.24 78.05 79.42 87.87 92.13
Base to Planted Acre Fraction 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 Mkt Rec 
Gross Added AMTA per Plted Ac 120.15 110.54 165.55 99.21 100.95 111.70 117.10 +Added AMTA
Average Yield 1996-00 59.29 58.78 75.14 47.55 57.83 52.72 59.23 +LDP
Added AMTA per Planted Acre 2.03 1.88 2.20 2.09 1.75 2.12 1.98 +Base AMTA
Total Revenue per cwt. 12.722 12.440 13.064 12.837 12.179 12.900 12.626 12.63
Added AMTA of $2.5/cwt  2.5
Added AMTA per Base Yield 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Farm Program Yield 49.42 45.47 68.10 40.81 41.53 45.95 48.17
Program Fraction 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85
Added AMTA per Base Acre 105.03 96.63 144.71 86.72 88.25 97.64 102.36
Base to Planted Acre Fraction 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 Mkt Rec 
Gross Added AMTA per Plted Ac 133.50 122.83 183.95 110.23 112.17 124.11 130.11 +Added AMTA
Average Yield 1996-00 59.29 58.78 75.14 47.55 57.83 52.72 59.23 +LDP
Added AMTA per Planted Acre 2.25 2.09 2.45 2.32 1.94 2.35 2.20 +Base AMTA
Total Revenue per cwt. 12.947 12.649 13.309 13.069 12.373 13.136 12.846 12.85
Added AMTA of $2.75/cwt  2.75
Added AMTA per Base Yield 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75
Farm Program Yield 49.42 45.47 68.10 40.81 41.53 45.95 48.17
Program Fraction 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85
Added AMTA per Base Acre 115.53 106.29 159.18 95.39 97.07 107.40 112.60
Base to Planted Acre Fraction 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 Mkt Rec 
Gross Added AMTA per Plted Ac 146.85 135.11 202.34 121.25 123.39 136.52 143.13 +Added AMTA
Average Yield 1996-00 59.29 58.78 75.14 47.55 57.83 52.72 59.23 +LDP
Added AMTA per Planted Acre 2.48 2.30 2.69 2.55 2.13 2.59 2.42 +Base AMTA
Total Revenue per cwt. 13.172 12.858 13.553 13.301 12.567 13.371 13.065 13.07Table 6.  Alternative Formulas for Calculating Rice Base Acres by State.
Assumes Planted and Considered Planted (Base Acres) 1990-1995 and Actual Plantings 1996-2000
Ark Cal La Ms Mo Tx US
1990 1664 625 749 371 114 610 4154
1991 1659 619 752 369 122 612 4155
1992 1655 610 751 370 125 608 4139
1993 1657 605 756 371 130 600 4143
1994 1666 598 759 372 134 603 4158
1995 1671 597 771 376 140 598 4182
1996 1180 502 535 210 97 300 2824
1997 1400 518 585 240 122 260 3125
1998 1500 460 625 270 145 285 3285
1999 1630 510 620 325 186 260 3531
2000 1420 550 485 220 175 215 3065
Base Acres Assuming Planted and Considered Planted Over Alternative Periods
Arkansas California Louisiana Mississippi Missouri Texas United  States
Base % 96 Base Base % 96 Base Base % 96 Base Base % 96 Base Base % 96 Base Base % 96 Base Base % 96 Base
1991-95 1661.6 99% 605.8 101% 757.8 98% 371.6 99% 130.2 93% 604.2 101% 4155.4 99%
1992-96 1565.8 94% 582.4 98% 714.4 93% 339.8 90% 125.2 89% 541.8 91% 3889.2 93%
1993-97 1514.8 91% 564.0 94% 681.2 88% 313.8 83% 124.6 89% 472.2 79% 3686.4 88%
1994-98 1483.4 89% 535.0 90% 655.0 85% 293.6 78% 127.6 91% 409.2 68% 3514.8 84%
1995-99 1476.2 88% 517.4 87% 627.2 81% 284.2 76% 138.0 99% 340.6 57% 3389.4 81%
1996-00 1426.0 85% 508.0 85% 570.0 74% 253.0 67% 145.0 104% 264.0 44% 3166.0 76%
Planted Acres for Rice Assuming No Credit for Considered Plantings 1991-1995
Ark Cal La Ms Mo Tx US
1990 1240 400 555 255 92 355 2897
1991 1300 357 560 225 97 345 2884
1992 1400 396 630 280 117 353 3176
1993 1280 440 545 250 105 300 2920
1994 1440 487 625 315 131 355 3353
1995 1350 467 575 290 119 320 3121
1996 1180 502 535 210 97 300 2824
1997 1400 518 585 240 122 260 3125
1998 1500 460 625 270 145 285 3285
1999 1630 510 620 325 186 260 3531
2000 1420 550 485 220 175 215 3065
Base Acres Calculated from Planted Acres Only for Alternative Periods
Arkansas California Louisiana Mississippi Missouri Texas United  States
Base % 96 Base Base % 96 Base Base % 96 Base Base % 96 Base Base % 96 Base Base % 96 Base Base % 96 Base
1991-95 1354.0 81% 429.4 72% 587.0 76% 272.0 72% 113.8 81% 334.6 56% 3090.8 74%
1992-96 1330.0 80% 458.4 77% 582.0 75% 269.0 72% 113.8 81% 325.6 54% 3078.8 74%
1993-97 1330.0 80% 482.8 81% 573.0 74% 261.0 69% 114.8 82% 307.0 51% 3068.6 73%
1994-98 1374.0 82% 486.8 82% 589.0 76% 265.0 70% 122.8 88% 304.0 51% 3141.6 75%
1995-99 1412.0 85% 491.4 82% 588.0 76% 267.0 71% 133.8 96% 285.0 48% 3177.2 76%
1996-00 1426.0 85% 508.0 85% 570.0 74% 253.0 67% 145.0 104% 264.0 44% 3166.0 76%

Method for Calculation of Counter Cyclical Payments Using State and National Trigger Levels (Major Crops)

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