Wie gross ist der zukünftige Anpassungsbedarf bei der AHV? Rückblick 1948-1998 und Ausblick 1998-2048

Abstract

Given the demography what are the additional revenues needed to finance the benefits of the Swiss Old Age and Survivor Insurance? A retrospective from 1948 to 1998 shows that the benefits of this insurance became increasingly difficult to finance in the past. Prospective simulations from 1998 to 2048, based on official demographic forecasts, show that in the long run with the current level of contributions, revenue cover seventy per cent of the expenditures provided that the productivity grows with one per cent per annum. This coverage is even three quarters if the growth of productivity is 1.5 per cent. The coverage ratio can be used to measure the financial impact in the long run of future reforms of the Swiss Old Age and Survivor Insurance.