For some time now, the Latino voice has been gradually gaining strength in
American politics, particularly in such states as California, Florida, Illinois, New
York, and Texas, where large numbers of Latino immigrants have settled and
large numbers of electoral votes are at stake. Yet the issues public officials in
these states espouse and the laws they enact often do not coincide with the
interests and preferences of Latinos. The fact that Latinos in California and
elsewhere have not been able to influence the political agenda in a way that is
commensurate with their numbers may reflect their failure to participate fully in
the political process by first registering to vote and then consistently turning out
on election day to cast their ballots.
To understand Latino voting behavior, I first examine Latino political
participation in California during the ten general elections of the 1980s and
1990s, seeking to understand what percentage of the eligible Latino population
registers to vote, with what political party they register, how many registered
Latinos to go the polls on election day, and what factors might increase their
participation in politics. To ensure that my findings are not unique to California, I
also consider Latino voter registration and turnout in Texas for the five general
elections of the 1990s and compare these results with my California findings.
I offer a new approach to studying Latino political participation in which I
rely on county-level aggregate data, rather than on individual survey data, and employ the ecological inference method of generalized bounds. I calculate and
compare Latino and white voting-age populations, registration rates, turnout
rates, and party affiliation rates for California's fifty-eight counties. Then, in a
secondary grouped logit analysis, I consider the factors that influence these
Latino and white registration, turnout, and party affiliation rates.
I find that California Latinos register and turn out at substantially lower
rates than do whites and that these rates are more volatile than those of whites. I
find that Latino registration is motivated predominantly by age and education,
with older and more educated Latinos being more likely to register. Motor voter
legislation, which was passed to ease and simplify the registration process, has
not encouraged Latino registration . I find that turnout among California's Latino
voters is influenced primarily by issues, income, educational attainment, and the
size of the Spanish-speaking communities in which they reside. Although
language skills may be an obstacle to political participation for an individual, the
number of Spanish-speaking households in a community does not encourage or
discourage registration but may encourage turnout, suggesting that cultural and
linguistic assimilation may not be the entire answer.
With regard to party identification, I find that Democrats can expect a
steady Latino political identification rate between 50 and 60 percent, while
Republicans attract 20 to 30 percent of Latino registrants. I find that education
and income are the dominant factors in determining Latino political party
identification, which appears to be no more volatile than that of the larger
electorate.
Next, when I consider registration and turnout in Texas, I find that Latino
registration rates are nearly equal to those of whites but that Texas Latino
turnout rates are volatile and substantially lower than those of whites.
Low turnout rates among Latinos and the volatility of these rates may
explain why Latinos in California and Texas have had little influence on the
political agenda even though their numbers are large and increasing. Simply put,
the voices of Latinos are little heard in the halls of government because they do
not turn out consistently to cast their votes on election day.
While these findings suggest that there may not be any short-term or
quick fixes to Latino participation, they also suggest that Latinos should be
encouraged to participate more fully in the political process and that additional
education may be one means of achieving this goal. Candidates should speak
more directly to the issues that concern Latinos. Political parties should view
Latinos as crossover voters rather than as potential converts. In other words, if
Latinos were "a sleeping giant," they may now be a still-drowsy leviathan waiting
to be wooed by either party's persuasive political messages and relevant issues. </p