Modelling heterogeneity to estimate the ex ante value of biotechnology innovations

Abstract

After more than a decade of GM crops, literature reports farmers and consumers can gain significantly from the technology, despite the intellectual property rights assigned to the innovator. In this paper we assess the effect of heterogeneity on this distribution of benefits. A two dimensional framework is created to assess the ex ante benefits of an innovation. Given this setting and the scarce data often available, a parametric modelling approach is taken. The two dimensions of heterogeneity, spatial and temporal, are explicitly modelled as they have a different importance for different technologies. Using this framework we can simulate different corporate pricing strategies and evaluate the benefits generated under changing heterogeneity. The framework is tested on the introduction of HT sugar beet in the EU-27.Heterogeneity, Parametric modelling, ex ante, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,