Arias, M.E.

Cochrane, T.A.

Oeurng, C.

Piman, T.

Shrestha, B.

UC Research Repository

Land Use Change Projections49 % forest 31 % forest31  forestChanges in SedimentsThe transboundary Sesan, Srepok, and Srekong basins (3S) are rapidly developing.  This development together with climate change are creating ecosystem pressures in the basins and downstream.  Our project aims to address these challenges:Challenge 1: Improve current climate change and hydropower development modelling to address:• land use change, • sediment/nutrient transport, • impact on riverine ecosystems.Hydropower and  Climate ChangeThere is a need to quantify the uncertainty in sediment predictions and its implication for the opportunity and cost of integrated sediment management for catchments with hydropower damsAssessing Uncertainty for Future Management(a)A2-Dry season(b)A2-Wet season(c)B2-Dry season(d)B2-Wet seasonCritical Basin at Risk:  Assessing and managing ecosystem pressures from development and climate change in the 3S basinAcknowledgements:Key References and OutputsClimate ChangeHydropowerOperations and Energy01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0001-Jan1-Feb1-Mar1-Apr1-May1-Jun1-Jul1-Aug1-Sep1-Oct1-Nov1-DecFlow m3 /sOutlet of the 3S basinBaseline scenario (no dams)Ecological flowsMaximize energy12059020406080100120140Maximize energy Maintainecological flowsEnergy (GWh/day)Hydropower operation scenarios:• Operate reservoirs to maintain Ecological Flows• Maximize energy productionEcological operations result in half energy generation.Need to find the optimal operation regime to balance energy production and downstream ecosystem services01000200030004000500060007000Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecAverage monthly flow (m3/s)ND-BL: 1986-2005DF-BL: 1986-2005DMST-BL: 1986-2005Full HP developmentDefinite futureBaseline: 1986‐200501000200030004000500060007000Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecAverage monthly flow (m3/s)ND-BL: 1986-2005ND-A2: 2010-2049ND-B2: 2010-2049A2 climateB2 climateBaseline: 1986‐ 5Challenge 2: Simulate development scenarios and assess  operations, locations, and design of proposed hydropower and agro-industrial schemes. Challenge 3: Provide a marginal cost/value analysis of water, nutrients, and sediment related to hydropower use, agriculture, riverine ecosystems, and downstream ecological productivity. Challenge 4: Investigate  a PES approach to key forest catchments in the 3S basin, where forest conservation can be viewed as an investment in hydropower electricity production. vChanges to Riverine EcosystemsHydropowerClimateChangeLand UseChange• Arias, M.E., Piman, T., Lauri, H., Cochrane, T.A. and Kummu, M. (2014) Dams on Mekong Tributaries as significant contributors of hydrological alterations to the Tonle Sap Floodplain in Cambodia. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discuss (11): 2177–2209. • Cochrane, T.A., Arias, M.E. and Piman, T. (2014) Historical impact of water infrastructure on water levels of the Mekong River and the Tonle Sap System. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 11: 4403‐4431. • Piman, T., Cochrane, T.A., Arias, M.E., Green, A. and Dat, N.D. (2013) Assessment of flow changes from hydropower development and operations in Sekong, Sesan and Srepok Rivers of the Mekong Basin. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 139(6): 723‐732.• Piman, T. and Cochrane, T.A. (2013) Assessment of flow changes from the operation of dams in the Mekong basin. The International Journal on Hydropower & Dams 2013(1): 44‐48. • Piman, T., Cochrane, T.A., Arias, M.E., Dat, N.D. and Vonnarart, O. (2014) Managing Hydropower under Climate Change in the Mekong Tributaries. In S. Shrestha (Ed.), Managing Water Resources under Climate Uncertainty: Opportunities and Challenges: forthcoming. London: Springer. Team members: Thomas A. Cochrane1, Mauricio E. Arias3, Thanapon Piman2, Bikesh Shrestha1, Oeurng Chantha1,41 23 Harvard University4 Institute of Technology of CambodiaImpact of hydropower  climate changeLand use change projection with Dinamica or Dyna-Clueand MODIS imagery

Critical Basin at Risk: Assessing and managing ecosystem pressures from development and climate change in the 3S basin

https://ir.canterbury.ac.nz/bitstream/10092/12260/1/12652205_Poster%20for%20MRC%20Climate%20Forum%20update.pdf

Critical Basin at Risk: Assessing and managing ecosystem pressures from development and climate change in the 3S basin

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