El efecto de la inmigración en la sostenibilidad a largo plazo del sistema de pensiones en España.

Abstract

In this paper we build a socio-economic simulation model, called Carrion, to project the public expenditure on the retirement pensions, the social security contributions and the GDP through 2060. The model makes use of detailed hypothesis backed with econometric estimations on the behavior of current and future immigrants related to the length of stay, fertility, wages and employment rates. This information, along with the same for the native population, allows a detailed analysis of the effect of immigration on the balance of the social security system. The main result is that the solvency ratio (contributions over pensions) of immigrants is clearly above that of natives and will be so until 2055, when both ratios will be well under current valuesDemographic projections, Social Security, pensions, sustainability of pension system