Berndt, Jonas

Elbern, Hendrik

Friese, Elmar

Hoppe, Charlotte

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Direct normal irradiance forecasting at dust sites based on aerosol data assimilation

Geophysical Research AbstractsVol. 18, EGU2016-12130, 2016EGU General Assembly 2016© Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License.Direct normal irradiance forecasting at dust sites based on aerosol dataassimilationCharlotte Hoppe (1,2), Elmar Friese (2), Jonas Berndt (1,2), Hendrik Elbern (1,2)(1) Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Institute for Energy and Climate Research (IEK-8), Juelich, Germany(c.hoppe@fz-juelich.de), (2) Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research at the University of Cologne (RIU), Cologne,GermanyThe optimal operation of concentrating solar thermal power plants (CSP) or concentrating photovoltaic plants(CPV) requires precise forecasts of direct normal irradiance (DNI). Aerosols have a strong impact on DNI. Highaerosol loads may cause a reduction of DNI of up to 20-30% under clear-sky conditions. Thus, an accurate repre-sentation of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) is crucial for reliable DNI forecasts. Concentrating solar power plantsare often located in desert/arid regions where dust events are likely to occur. For those locations with strong aerosolor especially dust sources in the vicinity, using only large scale, low resolution aerosol information from satellitesmight not be sufficient. Ground-based measurements of particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) provide additional,more precise, local information. On the other hand, sparsely populated desert areas are only poorly equipped within-situ measurement devices. Thus, data assimilation seeks to make optimal use of all available observations.Within the EU FP7 project DNICast, assimilation based simulations are performed using the EURopean pollu-tion Dispersion-Inverse Model (EURAD-IM) including a 3D/4D- Var data assimilation scheme and sophisticatedaerosol dynamics and aerosol chemistry schemes. The setup includes all aerosol related observation streams alongwith routine data assimilation plus available on-site data and will provide assimilation based short term forecastsof AOD at selected test sites. The system is embedded in the European Earth observation system MACC (now:CAMS) and benefits from near-real time in situ and space borne measurements. The system is coupled to the WRFmodel to provide radiation forecasts based on aerosol information from the EURAD-IM data assimilation scheme.We will present simulation results for CSP sites on the Iberian Peninsula evaluating the gain of information ob-tained by data assimilation to capture small-scale dust events and large scale Saharan dust events, which bothcause sharp decreases in CSP power production. The simulation results are validated using ground-based AODmeasurement data from the AERONET measurement network, as well as radiation observations.

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Direct normal irradiance forecasting at dust sites based on aerosol data assimilation

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