CVaR and Credit Risk Measurement

Abstract

The link between credit risk and the current financial crisis accentuates the importance of measuring and predicting extreme credit risk. Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) has become an increasingly popular method for measuring extreme market risk. We apply these CVaR techniques to the measurement of credit risk and compare the probability of default among Australian sectors prior to and during the financial crisis. An in depth understanding of sectoral risk is vital to Banks to ensure that there is not an overconcentration of credit risk in any sector. This paper demonstrates how CVaR methodology can be applied in different economic circumstances and provides Australian Banks with important insights into extreme sectoral credit risk leading up to and during the financial crisis.Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), Banks, Structural modelling, Probability of default (PD)