Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

Abstract

Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies. Chapter 2 provides an overview of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of flood risk management strategies under climate change uncertainty and new information. CBA is applied to determine optimal dike heights under climate change uncertainty and new information in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a flood protection standard. Chapter 5 departs from expected cost minimisation, and applies the minimax regret decision criterion to identify maximum regret minimising flood risk management strategies under the arrival of new climate impact information. The thesis concludes that the modelling of new climate-related information may improve an economic analysis of flood risk management strategies</p