AfDB

Salami, Adeleke Oluwole

English

Research Papers in Economics

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT REVIEW / REVUE AFRICAINE 
DE DEVELOPPEMENT 
 
VOL. 17 No. 2 September / Septembre 2005 
 
 
 
Challenges  for  Food  Security  in  Eritrea:  A  Descriptive  and  Qualitative 
Analysis 
Ravinder Rena 
African Development Review 2005 17:2 
 
General Equilibrium Approach for Poverty Analysis: With an Application to 
Cameroon  
B. Decaluwé, L. Savard, E. Thorbecke  
African Development Review 2005 17:2 
 
Une modélisation des déterminants des décisions de scolarisation primaire 
des ménages au Sénégal  
Abdoulaye Diagne  
African Development Review 2005 17:2 
 
The  Impact  of  Increased  School  Enrollment  on  Economic  Growth  in 
Tanzania  
Holger Seebens and Peter Wobst  
African Development Review 2005 17:2 
 
Exchange  Rate  Regime,  Real  Exchange  Rate,  Trade  Flows  and  Foreign 
Direct Investments: The Case of Morocco  
Jamal Bouoiyour, Serge Rey  
African Development Review 2005 17:2 
 Challenges for Food Security in Eritrea: A Descriptive and Qualitative 
Analysis 
 
Ravinder Rena 
 
Abstract: Food security is about ensuring that all people at all times have both 
physical  and  economic  access  to  the  basic  food  they  need.  In  a  number  of 
African  countries  chronic  malnutrition  and  transitory  food  insecurity  are 
pervasive. Like most African countries, Eritrea is also a victim of the problem of 
food insecurity. Based on this historical and recurrent food insecurity in Eritrea, 
an attempt is made in this paper to assess the possible causes of food insecurity 
in the country. Furthermore, the paper captures the available food security policy 
proposals  of  Eritrea  and  eventually  draws  conclusions  and  extends  possible 
recommendations and policy remedies suited to the country. 
 
 
General Equilibrium Approach for Poverty Analysis: With an 
Application to Cameroon 
 
B. Decaluwé, L. Savard and E. Thorbecke 
 
Abstract: In this paper we use a computable general equilibrium model to study 
the  impact  of  a  trade  shock  and  a  tariff  reform  on  household  poverty  for  an 
archetype  developing  country.  Unlike  other  studies,  we  present  the  income 
distribution of each household group as a Beta statistical distribution. In contrast 
to other studies, this paper presents the poverty lines as being endogenous. With 
this  specification,  the  poverty  line  will  change  following  a  variation  in  relative 
prices. With the new distributions and poverty line, the poverty levels of the base 
year  are  compared  with  the  ex post  values.  Foster,  Greer  and  Thorbecke's 
(1984)  poverty  measures  are  used.  We  work  with  the  Cameroon  household 
survey data of 1995–96. We consider two scenarios. The first is a 30 percent fall 
in the world price of the country's export crop and the second is a reduction of 50 
percent in the country's import tariffs. For the first simulation, results indicate a 
drop in all household incomes and a decrease in the poverty line. Unilateral trade 
liberalization also has negative consequences on all household incomes. As in 
the  first  simulation,  the  poverty  line  decreases  with  a  unilateral  trade 
liberalization. In the trade liberalization simulation, the poverty line effect counters 
the income effect in most cases analyzed. In the other simulation, the poverty 
line effect attenuates the decrease in the poverty measures. 
  
Une modélisation des déterminants des décisions de scolarisation 
primaire des ménages au Sénégal 
 
Abdoulaye Diagne 
 
Abstract: This study describes enrolment rates and constructs an econometric 
model for primary education demand in Senegal, relying on the results of the 
QUID survey realized in 2001. A sequential probit model is constructed to explain 
the  different  choices  made  by  the  households  in  relation  to  their  children's 
education, namely: decision to enroll or not, choice of the type of school (public 
or private schools, if private, religious or secular schools), decision to allow the 
children to attain the last grade or not. A dozen of explanatory variables relating 
to children and households' characteristics and availability of education supply, 
are retained in this model. Simulations based on the model estimation results 
show  the  discrimination  endured  by  rural  children  compared  to  urban  ones 
whatever their gender, and by girls relative to boys, in terms of the probability 
distribution of the dependant variable of the model. 
Résumé: Cette étude est consacrée à la description et à la modélisation de la 
demande d'éducation primaire au Sénégal. Les choix des ménages relatifs à la 
scolarisation  de  leurs  enfants  (scolarisation  ou  non  de  l'enfant,  type  d'école 
retenu pour cette scolarisation, poursuite ou non à son terme de sa scolarité par 
l'enfant),  sont  décrits  et  expliqués  simultanément  dans  le  cadre  d'un  modèle 
probit  séquentiel.  Les  simulations  effectuées  avec  ce  modèle  montrent  entre 
autres résultats, la discrimination subie (en termes de probabilité d'être scolarisé 
et de terminer cette scolarité) par les enfants ruraux par rapport aux enfants des 
zones urbaines, quel que soit leur sexe, et celle subie par les filles par rapport 
aux garçons, quelle que soit leur zone de résidence. 
 
 
The Impact of Increased School Enrollment on Economic Growth in 
Tanzania 
 
Holger Seebens and Peter Wobst 
 
Abstract: Two different positions prevail in the recent discussion on the impact 
of  education  on  economic  growth:  those  who  support  a  positive  correlation 
between  schooling  and  economic  growth  rates  and  those  who  claim  that  the 
impact of schooling on growth has been overstated. What is intriguing about this 
discussion  is  that  both  positions  are  based  on  theory  and  the  results  from 
empirical  studies.  We  examine  the  long term  effects  of  increased  school 
enrollment (and effective attendance) on economic growth in Tanzania using a 
dynamic  computable  general  equilibrium  (DCGE)  model.  We  find  that  an 
increase in human capital formation in the long run leads only to a moderate 
increase of economic growth rates but to a substantial improvement of factor incomes to low education households, while overall income effects are Pareto 
efficient. 
 
 
Exchange Rate Regime, Real Exchange Rate, Trade Flows and 
Foreign Direct Investments: The Case of Morocco 
 
Jamal Bouoiyour and Serge Rey 
 
Abstract: We study the behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of 
the dirham against the European currencies (the EU15), over the period 1960–
2000 (annual data). We measure the volatility using standard deviation, and the 
misalignments as the difference between the actual REER and the equilibrium 
REER (the NATREX model). We show that a rise in the volatility of the dirham 
reduces the trade flows (exports and imports). The misalignments also affect the 
trade  flows:  an  overvaluation  leads  to  a  reduction  in  Morocco  exports,  to  an 
increase in Morocco imports, and globally to a deterioration of the trade balance 
with  the  European  Union.  On  the  other  hand,  neither  the  volatility  nor  the 
misalignments have an effect on foreign direct investment in favor of Morocco. 

African Development Review Vol 17 NÂ°2

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African Development Review Vol 17 NÂ°2

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Research Papers in Economics