Macroeconomic Variables Influencing the European Convergence of the Romanian Agri-Food Sector

Abstract

The methodological opening necessary to approach the economic convergence was based on a series of recent empirical studies, both at national level, in a European context and at the level of the agri-food sector, compared to overall Romanian economy. The competitiveness, which generates convergence, is usually related to tangible results, such as continuous productivity growth, high real wages and living standard, innovating processes with driving effect. The disarticulation in the Romanian economy dynamics in the last two decades is confirmed by the strong relative instability, measured by the variation coefficients (CoV%), ranging from 6.03% (in total GVA) to 14.83% (in agriculture). The energy intensity – in principle considered as a measure of the energy efficiency of a nation’s economy – experienced a strong regressive trend in Romania, compared to the EU–27 average, and bridging up the gaps requires extremely long periods of time (from 121.2 years to 32.7 years). Out of the six time periods considered as relevant for comparing economic performances, only in two (1993–1996 and 2001–2004) the “real wages – productivity” correlation was in the limits of economic rationality. The intensity of intermediary deliveries of agriculture to food industry was down by more than 35% (from 65.1% in 1989 to only 29.9% in 2007), while the intensity of intermediary deliveries from food industry to agriculture was down by more than 14.5% (from 19.1% in 1989 to 4.6% in 2007). The intensity of intermediary acquisitions of food industry from agriculture decreased by 46.7% (from 76.7% in 1989 to 30.0% in 2007), while that of agriculture from the food industry by 11% (from 18.0% in 1989 to 7.0% in 2007). The gross agricultural output per hectare in Romania had the highest variation coefficient among the seven investigated countries, i.e. 23.5%, compared to only 6.5% in Germany, under the conditions of a large technological performance gap between Romania and the compared countries. The bi-factorial regressional adjustment of the gross agricultural output per hectare, for which a determination coefficient of 80.4% was determined, reflects its pregnant dependence on cereal production. The real income from the agricultural activity in Romania was, in cumulative relative terms, by only 7.8% higher in 2008 compared to 2000; this increase lay between the decline by 9.2% (Netherlands) and the increase by 31.5% (Bulgaria); in Romania’s case, there was a striking amplitude of average yearly modifications, from 27.12% in the period 2001–2004 (2000 = 1), to – 12.85% in the period 2005–2008 (2004 = 1), i.e. the highest difference in rates among the compared countries.economic convergence, energy intensity, wages–productivity correlation, intermediary deliveries and acquisitions, A Indicator