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Oil Prices and Venezuela's Economy
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Abstract
This paper looks at Venezuela’s export revenue, imports, and trade and current account balances under a range of oil price outcomes for the next two years. It finds that Venezuela would run large current account surpluses for prices between 60−90perbarrel,andwouldevenrunasmallsurpluswithpricesat50 per barrel. (Most oil industry estimates for the next two years are in the range of $80-90 per barrel). The authors conclude that Venezuela is unlikely to run into foreign exchange constraints in the foreseeable future, and can pursue expansionary fiscal policies to counter any economic downturn.Venezuela, Venezuelan oil exports, Venezuelan government revenue