Oil Prices and Venezuela's Economy


This paper looks at Venezuela’s export revenue, imports, and trade and current account balances under a range of oil price outcomes for the next two years. It finds that Venezuela would run large current account surpluses for prices between 6090perbarrel,andwouldevenrunasmallsurpluswithpricesat60-90 per barrel, and would even run a small surplus with prices at 50 per barrel. (Most oil industry estimates for the next two years are in the range of $80-90 per barrel). The authors conclude that Venezuela is unlikely to run into foreign exchange constraints in the foreseeable future, and can pursue expansionary fiscal policies to counter any economic downturn.Venezuela, Venezuelan oil exports, Venezuelan government revenue

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