Quantifying the Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation

Abstract

The substantial increase in oil prices over the past six or seven years has provoked considerable comment within the international media. While this increase has not had quite the same impact as that experienced in the 1970's, the magnitude of the price increases still has significant implications from a macroeconomic perspective. This is particularly the case in terms of inflation. The re-emergence of the oil price issue necessitates a re-examination of econometric estimates of the influence of oil prices on inflation. We examine this issue in the case of a small open economy - that of Ireland.