A quantitative approach to the effects of social policy measures. An application to Portugal, using Social Accounting Matrices

Abstract

The impacts of policy measures on transfers between government and households will be quantified using Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs). The System of National Accounts (SNA) will be the main source used for the construction of the numerical version of these matrices, which will then form the basis for two algebraic versions. One version will consist of accounting multipliers, and structural path analysis will also be used for its decomposition. The other version will be a so-called SAM-based linear model, in which each cell will be defined with a linear equation or system of equations, whose components will be all the known and quantified transactions of the SNA, using the parameters deduced from the numerical SAM that served as the basis for this model. Macroeconomic aggregates and balances, as well as structural indicators of the distribution and use of income, will be calculated from numerical and algebraic versions of the SAM. These will make it possible to quantify and compare the effects of social policy measures and to evaluate their differences, in order to define the path for future research work on the SAM-based linear model.Social Accounting Matrix; SAM-based Modelling; Macroeconomic Modelling; Policy Analysis; Structural Path Analysis.