Scenarios for the Internet Migration of the Television Industry

Abstract

All the conditions for the television industry’s migration to the Internet are now in place. While this migration will be gradual, it will have a deep-seated impact on the industry:•the exclusive rights model will no longer be the standard;•some consumers will abandon traditional managed networks;•a globalization trend will be sparked, to the benefit of the major rights holders. Unlike the music and print media industries, the TV industry is gaining a strong position on the Web. As a result, television is poised to play a central role in video services. This offensive strategy will likely pay off down the line, but does not entirely eliminate the possibility of destroying value. There are structural reasons for this, including a fiercely competitive online advertising market and a lack of control over program circulation. Far from being simply transitory, the 2009-2010 economic downturn marks the beginning of a decade of restructuring for the TV industry. This new period will begin with an overall decline in the sector’s resources before increasingly varied consumption patterns spur a new period of growth. The decade running from 2010 to 2020 will also be a period that focuses on cost control, with the industrialization of TV production that will depart once and for all from its historical model, i.e., film. This migration to the Web poses a threat to the European industry in particular. A reassessment of the television industry’s regulatory strategy appears both necessary and urgent, and will involve the creation of integrated pan-European conglomerates.Television, video, networks, on-demand, connected devices, advertising, pay-TV.