Real Exchange Rates and economic development

Abstract

It is the purpose of this paper to correct some of these shortcomings and to lengthen the time horizon in the public debate about exchange rates, notably about the dollar/DM rate. Long-term interest rates, most of all the real rate of interest and the profitability of investment, will be brought into focus. The hypothesis emerging from this paper is that the dollar is likely to remain strong for fundamental reasons, i.e. for reasons rooted in the real sectors of the American and European economies. Temporary declines for short-term reasons are, of course, not excluded. They should, therefore, not be viewed as disproving the central thesis: what matters in the longer run are the vitality of an economy and its place and role in world economic development.