Intrinsic Inflation Persistence

Abstract

It is often argued that the New Keynesian Phillips curve is at odds with the data because it cannot explain inflation persistence — the difficulty of returning inflation immediately to target after a shock without any loss of output. This paper explains how a model where newer prices are stickier than older prices is consistent with this phenomenon, even though it introduces no deviation from optimizing, forwards-looking price setting. The probability of adjusting new and old prices is estimated using a novel method that draws only on macroeconomic data, and the findings strongly support the premise of the model.inflation persistence, hazard function, time-dependent pricing, New Keynesian Phillips curve