THE DETERMINANTS OF MIGRATION IN BRAZIL

Abstract

In the present study, the neoclassic human capital model was used as the theoretical foundation for the analyses of the determinants of migration in Brazil. The empirical studies were carried on with the application of a multiple regression macro model based on the gravitational model and on the Poisson distribution. In the empirical model, the number of migrants between Brazilian mesoregions was the response variable. Many socioeconomic and criminal aspects of the origin and the destiny of the migrants were used as explanatory variables. The distance between these regions and many geographical dummies were also used as independent variables. This paper contains seven sections. The first one introduces some concepts that are related to the determinants of migration. The next section briefly shows some aspects of the Brazilian regional diversity. After this, some quantitative data about the process of migration is presented. The subsequent section discusses the theoretical models of the analysis, which is the human capital model, and presents some similar studies done by other authors. Then, is showed the methodology and the macro model of migration that were used in the empirical analysis. Finally, the main empirical results are shown and the final discussions and conclusions are presented.