FLUTUAÇÕES E PERSISTÊNCIA NA POBREZA: UMA ANÁLISE DE DECOMPOSIÇÃO TRANSITÓRIA-CRÔNICA PARA O BRASIL

Abstract

Although many studies were done in Brazil about poverty, very few of then did analyze the transient or persistent nature of this phenomenon. Encouraged by the lack of poverty analyses as a dynamic phenomenon in Brazil, the objective of this paper is to evaluate which characteristics determine the personal relative position and the dynamics of the destitution state of the individual. Due to the scarcity of panel surveys in Brazil, it was used in this paper a pseudo-panel obtained from the PNAD database. With these data, were estimated the state permanence and the state transience probabilities in a Markov matrix with the application of a bivariate probit model with endogenous switching for grouped data. It was chosen as the welfare indicator the per capita family income, which was analyzed in relation to a relative poverty line. However, in order to verify the sensibility of the estimated parameters obtained in the econometric analysis, different assumptions of household scale economies and of intrahousehold relative costs were made and also distinct poverty lines were used. The transient-chronic analysis is based on the distinction between stationary and the transient components of the intertemporal propensity to poverty. The results enabled to identify which groups in the population were specially sensitive to the chronic and to the transient types of poverty.