CONVERGÊNCIA REGIONAL REVISITADA: UMA ANÁLISE EM EQUILÍBRIO GERAL PARA O BRASIL

Abstract

This article aims to apply a dynamic general-equilibrium model to Brazilian regional economics based on a version of "augmented" neoclassical economic growth model of Mankiw, Romer and Weil [QJE, 1992] using computational simulation. The results reach a trend of spatial concentration and formation of two steady states of incomes of the Brazilians regions: poor and rich. The South and Center-West regions tend to get the per capita income of the richest region, the Southeast. On the other hand, the poorest regions, Northeast and North, do not tend to change substantially their per capita income dynamic. The Northeast and North remains at an inferior level of per capita income 3,2 and 2,4 times respectively of the others regions. Subsequently, the article conducts a sensibility analysis of the dynamic to technological shock on the poorest regions, detecting a possible reversion of that tendency.