SALDOS COMERCIAIS E TAXA DE CÂMBIO REAL: UMA NOVA ANÁLISE DO CASO BRASILEIRO

Abstract

This article aims to test whether or not there is a stable relation between trade balance and real exchange rate. The period covered by the sample goes from 1980 to 2004. The frequency of the data is quarterly. It was used the cointegration techniques developed by Johansen as econometric methodology. The results obtained in this articles show strong evidence in favor of a stable relation among real exchange rate and trade balance for twenty five years. The reason why the studies of the late nineties failed to obtain evidence in favor of this relation lies on the fact that the effects of the trade liberations measures adopted during the early nineties in Brazil took almost an entire decade to vanish. The huge devaluation of Brazilian currency in the 1999 has clearly speeded up the adjustment process.