CONSOLIDAÇÃO FISCAL NOS ESTADOS BRASILEIROS: UMA ANÁLISE DE DURAÇÃO

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze the Brazilian state fiscal consolidation in the period 1986-2001. For that propose, we apply the duration models methodology. Henceforth, we try to list the main features that can explain the probability of the continuity of a state fiscal adjustment conditional to the duration of this adjustment up to this moment. The non-parametric results suggest that the probability of the continuity of a fiscal consolidation falls dramatically after the first year and even more after the second one. The parametric analysis shows that there is a core of relevant variables, such as: the Number of Fails, the ratio Personal Costs/Net Current Revenue, the dummy variable to the years before the Brazilian Constitution of 1988, the dummy variable to the years after the refinance law 9496/97 and the Polarization of the Political Colligation in the states.