ANÁLISE DOS EFEITOS ECONÔMICOS DA IMPLANTAÇÃO DO PRINCÍPIO DO DESTINO NA COBRANÇA DO ICMS E SUAS IMPLICAÇÕES SOBRE A POBREZA E A DESIGUALDADE DE RENDA

Abstract

This paper analyzes the economic effect of the implantation of the destination principle in the collection of the ICMS and its implications on the poverty and the regional inequality. The implantation would be made in three stages: in 2005, the interstate tax would be reduced in 25%, falling 25% in 2008, and being eliminated definitively in 2012. Two possibilities had been considered: one with all States and another one excepting the Amazonas. Moreover, the winner states had been able to increase its expenditures with the collection profit or to repass it for the families through transferences. The results had shown that only six States would lose with the implantation of the destination principle: Goiás, Santa Catarina, Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, Espírito Santo e Amazonas. The great winners would be Maranhão, Distrito Federal, Roraima, Acre, Alagoas and Piauí. In macroeconomics, it has a small increase in the consumption and a gradual reduction of the product and the supply of capital. In equity terms, if the profits will be transferred to the families, would have a significant reduction of the poverty, mainly in the poor states, with little variation in the regional inequality, with a small profit for the Northeast States.