FLUXOS DE CAPITAIS E COMPONENTES MACROECÔMICOS: ANÁLISE DE INTER-RELAÇÕES ATRAVÉS DA APLICAÇÃO DE UM MODELO DE VETORES AUTO-REGRESSIVOS (VAR)

Abstract

The present work aims to investigate the dynamic interactions between capital flows, public debt, country risk, interest rate differential and stock of foreign exchange in Brazil in the period 1995-2004. The vector autoregressive model (VAR) and the vector error correction model (VEC) constituted the empirical framework used. Its tools (impulse response functions and variance decomposition) allowed observing in general terms that Brazilian policy makers face strong difficulties when the objective is to stimulate the economic growth. This occurs especially because the interest rate differential represents a key-component manipulated to avoid the liquid capital flows decreasing and to keep the stability of prices.