EFEITO DA ABERTURA COMERCIAL NA VARIAÇÃO DA TAXA DE CÂMBIO REAL EM EPISÓDIOS DE SUDDEN STOP

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between trade openness and the current account reversal cost in economies that have experienced sudden stops. At the beginning of such episode, governments usually attempt to equilibrate the balance of payments spending international reserves, but sudden stops use to linger on up to a RER depreciation. A simple model shows more intense trade balance response to RER depreciation in more open economies. This stronger response makes the current account reversal less costly. We confirmed the model prediction for developing countries in an empirical exercise involving 53 countries' quarterly data series between 1970 and 2003.