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Le soutien aux personnes �g�es en perte d'autonomie: jusqu'o� les baby-boomers pourront-ils compter sur leur famille pour r�pondre � leurs besoins ?

Abstract

Projection of future needs for home care services typically uses current utilisation patterns and population ageing. Accurately assessing this need is much more complex since disability patterns among the elderly are changing and availability of caregivers is affected by changes in family structure. This paper projects annual growth rates between 2001-2031 in the need for informal and formal support among elderly in Quebec and discusses the policy implications of the increasing demand for informal caregivers. Using Statistics Canada Life Paths micro-simulation model, these projections incorporate disability rates and the upcoming availability of informal caregivers. The authors conclude that continued focus on family to meet the needs of elderly without increased formal support is not sustainable in the long term.Population aging, caregiving, disability, informal and formal support, Quebec

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