The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Autumn Forecast for 2010

Abstract

The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications of the internal policies and the international environment. This version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and informational improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately naming this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy. In this article, we present the Autumn forecast for 2010 (August estimates).model, input-output analysis, econometric relationships, simulations