This paper refers to some of my research findings on Decision Making processes in complex systems work. Starting as a complex cognitive process strongly contextualized in the operating environment, it ends up, in complex systems work, as an equally complex network of actors and systems (human and technological) that are confronted, in real time, with uncertainty , a large amount of information and feedback and with multiple standards and operating procedures...Complex systems work; Operational Decision; Mental Model; Situational awareness; Systemic decision

Sampaio, José João

English

Research Papers in Economics

The Systemic Dimension of Operational Decision in 
Complex Systems Work 
 
 
 
 
 
José João Martins Sampaio 
SOCIUS – ISEG/UTL 
http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~socius/socius/membros_uk.shtml 
 
 
 
 
 
This paper refers to some of my research findings on Decision Making processes in complex 
systems  work.  Starting  as  a  complex  cognitive  process    strongly  contextualized  in  the 
operating environment, it ends up, in complex systems work, as an equally complex network 
of actors and systems (human and technological) that are confronted,  in real time, with  
uncertainty , a large amount of information and feedback and with multiple standards and 
operating procedures... 
 
"The Society of the Future will be a cognitive society" 
European Commission White Paper on Education and Training, 1997. 
 
 
 
 
 
Although one can identify small differences in work organization, according to the specificity 
of  each  operational  context,  complex  systems  work  appear  as  open  systems  in  continuous 
evolution of the interactions that are established, at all levels and dimensions, among their 
constituents and respective environments. Thus, Operational Decision shall not be considered 
as the linear processing of information available in a given operational context (in a direct 
recursion  perspective)  but,  essentially,  as  the  combination  of  that  processing  with  its 
environmental constraints
1 and with the global systemic dynamics
2, which are controlled by 
rules and instructions (operational or of a strategic nature) that are responsible for maintaining 
system stability.  
                                                 
1 Organization of airspace, operating characteristics of aircraft and systems navigation support, safety 
parameters, etc. 
2 Global situation in terms of traffic volume and complexity, infrastructure support, available capacity, 
business objectives, etc. This  reality  requires  a  high  capacity  for  managing  the  flow  of  information  (direct  or 
retrospective) with the aim of reducing the uncertainty underlying the inherent complexity of 
the system. But, the truth is that the ability to decide resides exclusively on the human element, 
which,  in  its  multiple  dimensions,  characteristics  and  potential, is  assumed  to  be  the  most 
complex component (sub-system) of the whole process – See Fig.1.  
For this reason, the operational decision can hardly be circumscribed by rules and procedures 
resulting from a linear approach, and thus, ethologically reductive.  
In a contingency perspective, the human element is assumed as an open individual subsystem, 
which interacts in a transactional way, at multiple levels and dimensions, with the surrounding 
environment. 
 
Figure 1 – Air Traffic Control. The Human element as an open Sub-System 
 
 
Source: Sampaio, José  João (2009) 
 
Therefore, Operational Decision is not a unique event, well established in space and time, but it 
represents the best answer (action scheme) to the mental stimulation provided by a specific 
operational  situation.  Operational  Decision  thus  results  in  a  cognitive  process  in  constant 
evolution  /  adaptation,  during  which,  through  a  set  of  interim  evaluations,  the  operational 
reality is contrasted with the schemes of action in place. That is, the process of correlation between the perceived operational context and the more plausible assumptions (mental model) 
of  what  this  perception  may  represent.  So,  there  is  some  uncertainty,  ambiguity  and  even      
(in)credibility, for the data which underpins the process of decision making, maintaining that 
feature throughout the whole process of knowledge / understanding of reality environment, ie 
building operational situation awareness
3.  
The result is an adaptation /update of the operational mental model
4, through a set of actions 
appropriate  to  the  perceived  situation  which  are  supported  by  schemes  of  action  based  on 
accumulated experience – See Figure 2. 
 
 
                                                 
3 SITUATION AWARENESS – Situation awareness is a relatively recent concept that emerged during 
the 1980s, although it is a concept that is not easy to explain and for which there is no universally 
accepted  definition.  In  the  Eurocontrol  study,  Situation  Awareness,  Synthesys  of  Literature  Search, 
Dominguez (1994) established a table containing diverse definitions of situation awareness as suggested 
by  diverse  authors,  coming  to  the  conclusion  that  there  were  common  aspects  to  be  considered. 
Dominguez  goes  on  to  define  Situation  Awareness  as  “...the  continuous  extraction  of  environmental 
information and the integration of this information with previous knowledge to form a coherent mental 
picture,  and  the  use  of  that  picture  in  directing  further  perception  and  anticipating  future  events” 
(Eurocontrol,  2000,  p.4).  Again  according  to  the  Eurocontrol  study,  Endsley  (1995)  considers  that 
Situation  Awareness  is  not  limited  to  the  mere  perception  of  the  information  on  the  operational 
environment presented. It includes the comprehension of what that information means, in an integrated 
form, comparing it with the operator’s objectives and supplying indications on the future status of the 
environment,  which  are  important  for  the  decision  making.  The  Eurocontrol  Human  Resources  unit 
accordingly adopted a comprehensive and inclusive definition: 
 “Situation Awareness is the perception of the elements in the environment within a volume of time and 
space, the comprehension of their meaning and the projection of their status in the near future. This also 
means the continuous extraction of environmental information and the integration of this information with 
previous knowledge to form a coherent mental picture and the use of that picture in directing further 
perception and anticipating future events. Situation awareness is established by a continuous comparison 
between anticipation (predicted state of the system) and environmental input (actual state of the system)”, 
(Eurocontrol, 2000, § 2.4).  
 
4 MENTAL MODEL - Canãs et al. m (1995) highlight a certain amount of ambiguity in defining the 
concept of the mental model, arguing that, for some researchers, the mental model is a representation 
existing in the short-term memory, whereas, for others, it constitutes knowledge of reality stored in the 
long-term  memory. For this  reason the authors propose a  more dynamic definition consisting of the 
representation that is formed in the work memory in combining the information stored in the long-term 
memory and the operational reality information. According to these authors, therefore, the function of the 
mental model is to simulate reality in the work memory. The existence of a mental model explains why 
we  arrive  at  certain  conclusions,  how  we  manage  uncertainty  and  ambiguity  and  also  why  we  are 
surprised every time an event turns out to be different than expected. Following this conceptualisation, I 
have given preference to the proposal of Rouse and Morris (1985), cited by Endsley (2000), in which they 
refer to the mental model as a set of mechanisms that enable the human agents to generate descriptions of 
the objectives and functionalities of a certain system, explanations of how it functions and of the states of 
operationality  observed,  as  well  as  prediction  of  its  future  operational  states.  Also,  Mogford  (1997) 
defines the mental model as an organised set of knowledge consolidated and stabilised in time. According 
to Mogford, this is different from knowledge  in  general, as the term  “model” suggests a conceptual 
training analogous to that of the outside world in order to understand and predict the behaviour of a 
certain system. Hence, an effective mental model will be one which, in addition to general knowledge of 
the  operational  environment,  in  a  given  context,  also  includes  knowledge  and  comprehension  of  the 
electronic systems, including human/machine interfaces.  
 Figure 2 – Knowledge and Situation Awareness 
 
 
Source : Adapted from  Marsh, S. and al.,  2001 
 
The aviation sector is a good example of a complex system work, where the entire process of 
operational decision-making evolves in real time and often at very short time intervals, leading 
operators  to  develop  very  specific  cognitive  abilities,  in  order  to  obtain  the  most  possible 
efficacy of their operational performances. 
Research on air traffic controllers - ATCOs – decision making process, shows they maintain 
active different plans of action, at working memory level, using long-term memory whenever 
the monitoring of the carried out planning shows a failure to meet the foreseen objectives – See 
Fig.3. 
Similarly, the ATCOs select only the most relevant information sources in a given operational 
context, allowing them to maintain a dynamic ability to memorize and forget, thus rapidly 
eliminating, from the cognitive process of operational decision making, all the information 
already treated or deemed irrelevant.  
This dynamic is also an important catalyst element in the real time operational decision making 
process  and  is  the  reason  why  many  ATCOs  seek  to  work  in  a  medium/high  workload 
environment, as to achieve a level of cognitive activity that allows them to maintain a degree of 
surveillance according to the responsibility of their work. 
 
 CONSCIÊNCIA DA SITUAÇÃO
SITUAÇÃO OPERACIONAL PERCEBIDA DECISÃO OPERACIONAL
MONITORIZAÇÃO: Situação esperada      
versus realidade   
observada.
INTERVENÇÃO :     Actuação directa    
para introduzir  
modificações.
VERIFICAÇÃO:     Retro-Informação.
DIAGNÓSTICO:     Busca de informação
explicativa de situações 
novas e/ou inesperadas.
MEMÓRIA DE TRABALHO:
•Processamento de curto prazo;
•Informação externa (sensorial);
•Informação interna (Mem. L/P);
•Imagem Mental comparada com 
Modelo mental.
•Capacidade limitada;
•Vulnerável a surpresas;
MEMÓRIA LONGO PRAZO
•Armazena grande quantidade de  informação,    
duranteum longo período;
•Construção Modelo Mental;
•Conhecimento Epistemológico :
O QUÊ?   
•Conhecimento Heurístico :
COMO?
Figure 3 – Situation Awareness and Operational Decision  
 
 
Source: Sampaio, José  João (2009) 
 
Being a complex system work, the operating environment of commercial aviation, includes 
different human agents (aircraft operators, flight crews, service providers, air traffic controllers, 
etc...)  and  technology  (terrestrial  and  airborne  surveillance  and  safety  systems,    flight 
management systems, flight data processing, etc..) that act as actors of a distributed cognition, 
meaning that knowledge and cognition are not limited to the individual, but emerge as factors 
essential to understanding the relationship between humans, machines and the environment in 
which they interact. Our research applied to the air traffic control reality, (see Sampaio, José  
João, 2009) shows clearly this systemic dimension, when 75% of the ATCOs state they can 
perceive what other colleagues think, in general work situations, while 31% of them consider 
that  there  is  a  comprehensive  cognitive  dimension  of  the  whole  working  team,  which 
configures a scenario of enlarged operational situation awareness: 
[...] Over time we learn to know how our colleagues work. But, this does not mean 
that we all function the same way. What happens is that we know each other and 
know each one operates [...] So, to know what is going on each other’s head is a  
personalized knowledge, depending on who is watching who [...] On the other hand, developments in operational contexts, allow us to conclude for the existence 
of  a  trend  towards  gradual  disappearance  of  some  existing  operational  decisions,  either  by 
planned anticipation of the work processes, or by its breakdown into a set of automated tasks. 
The self concept of operational decision will then need to be reviewed, as it is now departing 
from its individual and individualistic nature, as a process primarily focused on the individual 
and on the working post, to assume a systemic cognitive perspective that integrates all the actors 
involved, independently of their human or technological nature.  
Therefore, the greater the degree of technology/automation of the operating environments, the 
more evident is the need for operator's mental model to integrate the structural and functional 
characteristics of human and technological agents. The new paradigm requires thus the study of 
work organizing strategies, supported on the evolution from a structure founded on the one-
dimensional relationship – Working  post / Qualification / Systems Operator – to a systemic 
complexity    -  Individual  /  Competence  /  Systems  Manager  -  where  the  human  and  the 
technological  dimensions  emerge  concurrently  through  professional  competencies,  as 
determinant  to  the  understanding  and  development  of  the  work  processes. 
In fact, far goes the time where the work environment was confined to a one-dimensional, 
discrete and specialized working post.  In complex systems work, each action is a cause and 
effect of other actions/processes either upstream or downstream in/of the production process in 
which they operate.  Operational decision thus results of a new framework of human agents, as 
part  of  a  functional  network,  where  the  search  for  operational  balances  requires  a  holistic 
approach  to  work  processes  as  well  as  the  development  of  new  professional  competencies 
enabling the interaction between all actors involved.  
In this new systemic order, although each one is responsible for deciding at their own action 
level, the truth is that the final result depends on each one’s comprehension of the overall 
operational context and on the individual capability for integration that understanding. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Far  goes  the  time  where  the  work  environment  was  confined  to  a  one-
dimensional, discrete and specialized working post. 
 
 
References:   
 
Cañas, José J. et al., (1995), Mental Models And Working Memory,  Spain, Universidad De Granada, 
Facultad De Psicología, Departamento De Psicología Experimental. 
Dominguez, C. Et al., (1994), Situational Awareness: Papers And Annotated Bibliography, Interim 
Report AL/CF-TR-1994-0085, Armstrong Laboratory, Air Force Materiel Command, Wright-Patterson 
Air Force Base, OH. 
Endsley, Mica e Georgia, Mariett (2000) , “Situation Models: An Avenue To The Modeling Of Mental 
Models”, Proceedings 14th Trienniel Congress Of The International Ergonomics Association And The 
44th Annual Meeting Of The Human Factors And Ergonomics Society. 
Endsley, Mica (1995), “Toward A Theory of Situation Awareness in Dynamic Systems”, Human Factors, 
(37, 1), pp.32-64.  
Eurocontrol (2000), Situation Awareness Synthesys Of Literature Search, Bretigny, ECC Note 16/00 
Project Asa – 2- Ec. 
Marsh, S. Et al.,  “Tactical Decision Making: The Interaction Of Human Perception And 
Judgment With Automated Information Processing And Presentation – Situational awareness 
and Presentation” in  Crovella (2002), Tactical Decision Aids And Situational Awareness, 
Neully-Sur-Seine, RTO-EN-019, AC/323(SCI-113) TP/41.  
Mogford, Richard, 1997, “Mental Models And Situation Awareness In Air Traffic Control”, International 
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Mental Models And Situation Awareness In Air Traffic Control”,

On Looking Into The Black Box: Prospects And Limits In The Search For Mental Models,

Situation Awareness Synthesys Of Literature Search, Bretigny,

Situation Models: An Avenue To The Modeling Of Mental Models”,

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Tactical Decision Making: The Interaction Of Human Perception And Judgment With Automated Information

Toward A Theory of Situation Awareness in Dynamic Systems”,

The systemic dimension of operational decision in complex systems work

The systemic dimension of operational decision in complex systems work

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