Fink, D

Gagan, MK

McGregor, HV

Phipps, SJ

Woodroffe, CW

ANSTO Publications Online

The El Niño-Southern 
Oscillation (ENSO) from 0-2 ka 
Helen McGregor, Steven Phipps, 
Colin Woodroffe, Mike Gagan, 
David Fink 
What is an El Niño 
event? 
http://www.clivar.org/publications/other_pubs/clivar_transp/!
El Niño events are associated with reduced rainfall in eastern 
Australia 
Source: ABS, BoM 
El Niño and Australian wheat yield 
Models highly variable in 
forecasts of future ENSO  
Guilyardi  et al. 2009 
CMAP Estimated Precipitation (mm/day)!
0	
 2	
 4	
 10	
8	
 22	
18	
16	
14	
6	
 12	
 20	

Jan 1998!
El Niño pattern 
Normal pattern 
-4	
 -3	
 -2	
 0	
-1	
 4	
3	
2	
1	

IGOSS SST anomaly (°C)!
CMAP rainfall (mm/day) IGOSS SST anomaly (°C) 
Feb 1997!
Kiritimati 
ENSO centres of action 
Cobb et al, Nature 2003  
ENSO 0-1 ka (Palmyra Is) 
Nth hemi 
temperature 
Coral δ
18
O  
Solar forcing 
Volcanic 
forcing 
ENSO ~2 ka (Kiritimati & PNG) - 
Severe El Niños? 
McGregor & Gagan, GRL 2004  
Muschu, PNG 
2.04 ka 
Filling in the gaps: Kiritimati Microatolls 
Porites head coral Porites microatoll 
Porites microatoll X-ray 
Modern coral δ18O data from Kiritimati compared 
to satellite sea surface temperature (SST) 
McGregor et al. in prep 
El Niño 
year 
Transient climate model simulations 
•  CSIRO Mk3L climate system model v1.1: 
•  Atmosphere: 5.6 x 3.2o, 18 vertical levels 
•  Ocean: 2.8 x 1.6o, 21 vertical levels 
•  Sea ice: Dynamic-thermodynamic 
•  Land surface: Static vegetation 
•  1 x 10,000-year control simulation 
•  3 x transient simulations of the past 8,000 years (orbital forcing only) 
Simulated ENSO variability 
Simulated ENSO variability 
-4°C	
 -3°C	
 -2°C	
 0°C	
-1°C	
 4°C	
3°C	
2°C	
1°C	

Nov 1997!
Target the same centuries at ~2 ka in different 
locations across the equatorial Pacific 
El Niño SST anomalies 
Rambutso Island, PNG 
Photos courtesy of Javier Leon 


El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from 0-2 ka.

http://apo.ansto.gov.au/dspace/bitstream/10238/2641/2/MCGREGOR_El_Nino_Southern_Oscillation_2010_5_31.pdf

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from 0-2 ka.

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