Regional cultures of war and peace: dynamics of ethnonationalist mobilization and the spread of conflicts in post-Soviet and post-Yugoslav regions

Abstract

In their last years of existence the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) experienced a similar state of affairs. Yet, in the years after the break-up of each, the occurrence and spillover of ethnopolitical conflicts was comparatively higher on the territory of former Yugoslavia. In addressing this puzzle, the thesis seeks to argue that the difference can be accounted for by looking at the distinctive dynamics of ethnonationalist mobilization in the core and peripheral republics. The central hypothesis is that the timing of mobilization with respect to political liberalization matters for the likelihood of conflict occurrence. Moreover, it is not only important to consider when mobilization takes place, but also where. In that respect, the distinction between the core and periphery is critical. Combining these two hypotheses, the dissertation expects that conflict is most likely to occur in regions where both core and peripheral republics mobilize prior to political liberalization. Furthermore, such dyads are more likely to result in conflict spillover. The explanation for the difference in regional conflict formations in the Western Balkans and the former Soviet territory hinges on these spatio-temporal assumptions. It identifies the most precarious dyads in the former Yugoslavia, as early mobilization was present within both core and some peripheral republics. On the other hand, in the former Soviet Union, the core underwent late mobilization, while the experiences of peripheral states varied. The contributions of the thesis are three-fold: 1) it explores the links between identity politics and international relations; 2) it contributes to the literature on the democratization-conflict nexus; and finally, 3) it offers a non-institutional explanation for the difference in state collapses and ensuing conflicts in the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia