Formulating an optimal long-term energy supply strategy for Syria using MESSAGE model

Abstract

An optimal long-term energy supply strategy has been formulated based on minimizing the total system costs for the entire study period 2003-2030. The national energy chain was modelled covering all energy levels and conversion technologies. The results indicate that the primary energy will grow at annual average rate of 4.8% arriving 68 Mtoe in 2030. The total installed electric capacity will be optimally expanded from 6885 to 19500 MW in 2030. Furthermore, to ensure supply security the future national energy system will rely mainly upon oil and natural gas (NG) with limited contribution of renewables and nuclear to the end of study period. The share of NG will increase gradually up to 2020 and then retreat. Owing to the continuous decrease of oil production, oil export is expected to vanish in 2012 and the country will import about 63% of its primary energy demand in 2030. Thus, the expected long-term development of national energy sector indicates a hard challenge for the future national economy. The employing of sensitivity analysis clarifies the importance of wind turbines operation time and discount rate. The analysis proves that nuclear option is insensitive to overnight cost increase up to 85% of the reference case value.Energy supply strategy MESSAGE model Optimal expansion plan