High School Grades and University Performance: A Case Study

Abstract

A critical issue facing a number of colleges and universities is how to allocate first year places to incoming students. The decision to admit students if often based on a number of factors, but a key statistic is a student's high school grades. This paper reports on a case study of the subsequent performance at the University of Winnipeg of high school students from 84 Manitoba High Schools. By tracking the University performance of a set of students admitted for the years 1997-2002, we are able to estimate the likelihood of success of subsequent students based on their characteristics as well as their high school grades. In doing so, we use a number of alternative estimators including a Least Squares Dummy Variable Model and a Hierarchical Linear Model. The methodology should be of interest to admissions o±cers at other universities as an input into estimating the subsequent performance of first year students.