The littoral forests of south-eastern Madagascar are among the most threatened ecosystems on the island. A conservation plan has been developed for the region due to a proposed mining venture. Here, we provide a novel methodology to assess if the planned conservation measures would effectively conserve the bird diversity inhabiting these forests. Bird community composition within 30 littoral forest fragments was quantified with each fragment characterized by measures of fragment area, isolation, and internal habitat complexity. A nestedness and cumulative species–area analysis was conducted to ascertain the contribution of forest fragments of different sizes in capturing the overall bird species richness. Datasets representing the overall and forest-dependent bird assemblages were found to be significantly nested. The pattern of nestedness appeared to be driven by fragment size. However, cumulative species–area analyses showed that the assemblages were imperfectly nested with ten species displaying idiosyncratic distribution patterns. When a modest conservation target was set (the occurrence of a bird species in three or more fragments), the proposed conservation plan would only protect approximately half the species found in the littoral forests. We show that protecting an additional four large patches would mean that the proportion of forest-birds captured in three or more patches would increase to 70%
