Avrupa Birligi'ne Uyelik Surecinde Etkili Faktorlerin Kosullu Lojistik Regresyon Modelleri ile Degerlendirilmesi

Abstract

The aims of this study are to investigate the factors effecting European Union (EU) membership using the conditional logistic regression models by constructing different matched case-control designs and to compare the models. Using data of 2009 in the EU database (1:1), (1:m) and (n:m) matching designs are constituted. The best model explaining the EU membership process is selected and influence analysis of this model is given. Then, the probability of being an EU member country within less than eight years is predicted for each candidate country. According to our findings, it is seen that balance of current account is effective on the EU membership. Iceland and Croatia will be EU member countries within eight years and other candidate countries will be the EU members more than eight years. Also, it is found that the conditional logistic regression model with (n:m) matching design gives better results for the EU membership.Matched Case-Control Designs, Conditional Logistic Regression Analysis, European Union, Balance of Current Account