Uncertainty about children's survival and fertility : a test using Indian microdata

Abstract

The authors present a non-altruistic model of demand for children, in the presence of uncertainty about children's survival. Children are seen as assets, as they provide help during old age. If certain conditions are met, both the financial market, and the family network are used to transfer resources to old age. Theoretical predictions relative to the change in the mean, and variance of the survival rate are derived. The empirical analysis is based on data from the Human Development of India (HDI) Survey. Different models for count variables, such as Poisson, Hurdle, and ZI models have been employed in the empirical analysis. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainty about children's survival in determining parental choices, thus showing that realized, or expected children'sdeath, is not the only dimension that links fertility decision to children's mortality. The policy implications of such findings are briefly discussed.Youth and Governance,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Population&Development,Environmental Economics&Policies,Adolescent Health