Cosme, Nuno

Niero, Monia

Environmental emissions of nitrogen (N) from agriculture surplus may enrich coastal waters and trigger marine eutrophication impacts. We estimated these impacts for spring barley production in Denmark, under present and future climatic conditions with double carbon dioxide concentration and 5 °C increase. Characterised emissions of airborne (NH3 and NOx) and waterborne (NO3-) forms result in an endpoint impact of 2.35*10-12 (North Sea) and 8.47*10-12 species.yr (Baltic Sea) under present conditions per kg spring barley produced. The future scenario shows 67% increase on both spatial units. Spatial differentiation shows 3.6 fold higher impacts in the Baltic Sea in any of the temporal scenarios. The need for food/feed, efficacy of increasing fertilizers application, and increased competition for productive land may alter emissions. Biological processes, species metabolism and displacement, or sensitivity to hypoxia under future pressures may alter the impacts assessment

Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias

Online Research Database In Technology

Marine eutrophication impacts from present and future production of spring barley

                       General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.  • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal   If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.     Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Nov 08, 2017Marine eutrophication impacts from present and future production of spring barleyCosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Niero, MoniaPublished in:Book of Abstracts. DTU's Sustain Conference 2015Publication date:2015Document VersionPublisher's PDF, also known as Version of recordLink back to DTU OrbitCitation (APA):Cosme, N., & Niero, M. (2015). Marine eutrophication impacts from present and future production of springbarley. In Book of Abstracts. DTU's Sustain Conference 2015 [F-15] Lyngby: Technical University of Denmark(DTU).   Marine eutrophication impacts from present and future production of spring barley    Nuno Cosme * and Monia Niero * DTU Management Engineering *Corresponding authors emails: nmdc@dtu.dk (N. Cosme), monni@dtu.dk (M. Niero) Agricultural activity is the main driver for environmental emissions of nutrients. The need to increase its productivity to feed a growing population, the predicted increasing use of fertilizers, and future climatic pressures anticipate larger nutrient emissions to the environment. These originate from the surplus of fertilizers applied over plants assimilation and may cause freshwater (mainly phosphorus, P) and marine eutrophication (mainly nitrogen, N).  We applied the LC-IMPACT methodology (1) modified with recent developments (2) (3) to estimate the marine eutrophication impacts of N enrichment in a case-study that is representative of spring barley production in Denmark (4). The modelled emission routes from the agricultural field compartment include airborne transport and deposition of volatile N-forms (NH3 and NOx) and waterborne transport of N through freshwater systems, to the North Sea and Baltic Sea. Emissions inventory data was also obtained for a scenario under future climatic conditions, with crop yields estimated from experiments mimicking a worst case climate scenario, i.e. double carbon dioxide concentration and 5°C temperature increase. Impact assessment of the future scenario was modified to represent the parameterization of expected changes in fate, exposure and effects modelling (5).  Preliminary results of endpoint impacts (species.yr) (5) show 29% larger impacts to the Baltic Sea in the present scenario and an increase of 34% (North Sea) and 28% (Baltic Sea) in the future scenario. The results are justified by reduced agriculture yield (4) (6), and increased emissions and species sensitivity (5). Using LCA indicators we can estimate (the magnitude of) the effects of future climatic changes and anticipate (some of) the impacts, so that responses may be implement sooner. In this line, LCIA indicators give valuable information to decision support.  References (1)  Azevedo LB, Cosme N, Hauschild MZ, et al. (2013), FP7 (243827 FP7- ENV-2009-1) LC-IMPACT report. 154 pp. (2)  Cosme N, Koski M, Hauschild MZ (2015), Ecol. Modell. 317, 50–63. (3)  Cosme N, Hauschild MZ (submitted), Ecol. Indic. (4)  Niero M, Ingvordsen, CH, Hauschild MZ et al. (2015), Agric. Syst. 136, 46–60. (5)  Cosme N, Niero M (submitted), J. Clean. Prod. (6)  Niero M, Ingvordsen CH, Jørgensen RB, Hauschild MZ (2015), J. Clean. Prod. 107, 693–706. Sustain DTU Abstract: F-15

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Marine eutrophication impacts from present and future production of spring barley

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