Modelling the Determinants of International Tourism Demand to Australia,

Abstract

Prior to the recent Asian currency and economic crises, tourism from Asia had rapidly become Australia's major tourism export industry. Tourists from Singapore, which is Australia's fifth major market, represented 6% of international tourist arrivals to Australia in 1996. The average annual growth rate of tourist arrivals from Singapore of around 20% over 1990-96 far exceeded the 10.5% average annual percentage growth rate of all tourist arrivals to Australia over the same period (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1997). Despite the Asian currency and economic crises in 1997-98, tourist arrivals to Australia from Singapore has continued to grow slowly. It is imperative from the tourism marketing SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis to consider the economic factors influencing international tourism demand for Australia by Singapore, and to undertake a primary competitor analysis of New Zealand. The purpose of the paper is to estimate the income, price and transportation cost elasticities of inbound tourism from Singapore to Australia using seasonally unadjusted quarterly data, to determine if Australia and New Zealand are substitute or complementary destinations for Singaporean tourists, and to examine issues such as nonstationarity, cointegration and spurious regressions.