types: ArticleArticle published in open-access journal, Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(2), pp. 91-105Environmental uncertainty is at the core of much of human activity, ranging from daily decisions by individuals
to long-term policy planning by governments. Yet, there is little quantitative evidence on the ability of non-expert
individuals or populations to forecast climate-related events. Here we report on data from a 90-year old prediction game
on a climate related event in Alaska: the Nenana Ice Classic (NIC). Participants in this contest guess to the nearest
minute when the ice covering the Tanana River will break, signaling the start of spring. Previous research indicates a
strong correlation between the ice breakup dates and regional weather conditions. We study betting decisions between
1955 and 2009. We find the betting distribution closely predicts the outcome of the contest. We also find a significant
correlation between regional temperatures as well as past ice breakups and betting behavior, suggesting that participants
incorporate both climate and historical information into their decision-making
