Technical change in agriculture 1935-85:  using Farm Management Survey data from south-west England to explore processes of technical changeESR

Brassley, P

Harvey, D

Lobley, M

Winter, M

Open Research Exeter

Technical change in agriculture 1935-85:  using Farm Management Survey data from south-west England to explore processes of technical change Paul Brassley, David Harvey, Matt Lobley, and Michael Winter University of Exeter Volume of UK agricultural output               Growth rate peaked 1945-65 Output and productivity  Federico (2005)  C19 agricultural growth by increasing inputs  C20 growth by increasing TFP   Thirtle et al (2004) TFP growth rates  1953-1984: 1.68%  1984-2000: 0.26%  The Farm Management Survey  Was not designed to explain technical change  4987 fieldbooks entered in dataset Dis tribution of fieldbooks020406080100120140160180193919401941194219431944194519461947194819501951195219531954195519561957195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984F ieldbook Y earNumber of fieldbooks in yearF ieldbooks in S P S S  datasetMethodology For each farm Analyse accounts Farm history Oral history (for survivors) Analysing the accounts (2)  Year  Farm size  Grass area  Cereal output  Other crops output  Cattle output  Sheep output  Dairy output……  Fertiliser costs  Pesticide costs  Seed costs  Concentrate costs  Vet costs  Labour costs  Machinery costs  Building costs Comparison ratios  Index of farm specialisation  Output per £100 labour  Output per £100 capital  Real output per grazing acre  Animal output per £100 concentrates  Output per £100 total inputs Where were the farms?  Farm sizes gradually increased Fewer farms were rented The big changes in dairying  More milk per cow   More milk per acre   More milk per farm More milk per cow More milk per acre More milk per farm What produced more millk per cow?  Breed changes  AI  Feeds Breed changes in England and Wales Breed changes in the Far West AI More purchased feeds Increasing use of silage  John Coleman – ‘Father made silage in the 1950s … very hard work … all hand work … before the days of buckrakes … it was about 1958 that people started using buckrakes’  Paul Gluyas – ‘Hydraulics transformed materials handling. Hydraulic not hand-draulic’  And silage quality  Paul Gluyas - ‘… a lot more feed value in well-made silage than in well-made hay’   Michael Horrell – ‘ … if you had better quality silage the cow would eat more, and every kilogramme she ate would nourish her more…’ What produced more milk per acre?  More fertilizer  Better grass varieties  Better grazing management Changing fertilizer use Dairy farms used more N than non-dairy farms Mixed tenure farms used more Nitrogen Grazing management and grass varieties  Farm 744 – ‘we bought grass varieties by the advice of the seedsman’  Farm 7/8 – ‘NAAS … gave us advice on certain leys to use’   But no mention of paddocks/electric fencing/forward creep grazing How did farmers cope with more cows?  Parlours  Bulk tanks  Cubicles  Slurry  And specialisation….. Farmers began to specialise from the late 1940s/early 1950s  0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%193919401941194219431944194519461947194819501951195219531954195519561957195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984Cereal output as a proportion of total output Other crops output as a proportion of total output Horticulture output as a proportion of total outputCattle output as a proportion of total output Sheep output as a proportion of total output Pigs output as a proportion of total outputPoultry output as a proportion of total output Dairy output as a proportion of total outputThe importance of specialisation  IFS = [(E1/O1) x 100] + 1/n [(O1-E1)/O1 x 100]  Averag e IF S0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0193919401941194219431944194519461947194819501951195219531954195519561957195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984The main change was the disappearance of pigs and poultry 01020304050607080901001939194019411942194319441945194619471948194919501951195219531954195519561957195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984% of sampleFarms with Pigs Farms with PoultryCapital inputs also increased  Machinery  Buildings  Capital grants Output per £100 of capital invested Grant aid increased Tractors replaced horses and farms were electrified  0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%100.00%1939194019411942194319441945194619471948194919501951195219531954195519561957195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984Farms with working horses Farms with mains electricityLabour use decreased  Farm 2/7 (Dorset, 680 acres)   1945 – 19 workers   1984 – 6 workers Initial findings – from the whole Devon and Cornwall survey Graph 2: realo/i (1962=100)0204060801001201401601801940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990output per £100 inputrealo/iLinear (realo/i)Conclusions (1)  Most dairy farmers made the same changes  But at different times  Mixed farms specialised  These changes were impossible before 1939 Conclusions (2)  How much was due to  agricultural policy  Inflation  Tenure changes   The development of knowledge networks      

Technical change in agriculture 1935-85: using Farm Management Survey data from south-west England to explore processes of technical change

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