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Uncertainty in Climate Change

Abstract

This Working Paper reviews the main reasons why definite and conclusive evidence in the field of climate change is almost an impossibility. It analyses the main elements that explain natural climatic change and reflects on the high level of uncertainty in the system, which in many ways is inherent to the system itself, and presents the latest evidence. The following section presents in a stylised fashion the key features of uncertainty and how it relates to climate change. Then, an analysis of how GHG have been measured is followed by a discussion of the different GHG, natural and human-induced events that have a significant bearing on climate change. The Working Paper concludes with an overview of past, present and future climate change and with a summary of the main ideas discussed throughout the text

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