Sanayi Uretiminde Tatil Etkileri

Abstract

Omitting the official and religious holidays which are deterministic components of a time series causes a bias on analyzing of economic time series and this biased series comparisons will be at fault. In this study, I will discuss how the holiday variables can be constructed and analyzed in Turkish industrial production index (2005=100). I will also discuss how this effect adjust from original series and interpretation of this effects. According to application results achieved by RegARIMA model, it is carried out moving holidays have negative and statistical signifact effects on industrial production index. In addition, it is found out that rather than level of series, holiday effects makes an unignorable difference on growth rate of series.Time Series Decomposition, Stochastic Components, Deterministic Components, Holiday Effects, Religious Holidays, SARIMA, RegARIMA, Airline Model