Bartha, E. B.

Pieczka, Ildikó

Pongrácz, Rita

Repository of the Academy's Library

EMS Annual Meeting AbstractsVol. 9, EMS2012-382, 201212th EMS / 9th ECAC© Author(s) 2012EMS Annual  MeetingEuropean Conference on Appl ied  Cl imatology  ECACWhat is projected for heat warning levels in the Carpathian Basin by theend of the 21st century?R. Pongracz, E.B. Bartha, and I. PieczkaDept. of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University, Budapest, Hungary (prita@elte.hu)Human health is very likely affected by regional consequences of global warming. One of the most severe impactsis probably associated to temperature-related climatological extremes, such as heat waves. In the coming decadeshot conditions in most regions of the world are very likely to occur more frequently, more permanently, and moreintensely than in the recent decades. In order to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies on local scale, it isessential to analyze the projected changes related to warming climatic conditions including heat waves.In 2004, a Heat Health Watch Warning System was developed in Hungary on the basis of a retrospective analysisof mortality and meteorological data to anticipate heat waves that may result in a large excess of mortality. In theframe of this recently introduced Health Watch System, three levels of heat wave warning are applied. They areassociated to the daily mean temperature values, and defined as follows:(i) Warning level 1 (advisory for internal use) is issued when the daily mean temperature exceeds 25 ◦C.(ii) Warning level 2 (heat wave watch) is issued when the daily mean temperature for at least 3 consecutive daysexceeds 25 ◦C.(iii) Warning level 3 (heat wave alert) is issued when the daily mean temperature for at least 3 consecutive daysexceeds 27 ◦C.In the present study, frequency and length of the above climatic conditions are analyzed using PRECIS regionalclimate model experiments with 25 km horizontal resolution for the recent past and the coming decades (1961-2100) for the Carpathian Basin. In order to assess different future conditions, three different emission scenarios(B2, A1B, and A2) were considered, in which the future CO2 level is estimated 621 ppm, 717 ppm, and 856 ppm,respectively. The climatic conditions of 1961-1990 (as a reference), and 2021-2050, 2071-2100 future periodsare evaluated on the basis of daily mean temperature values, after applying bias correction to the raw outputs, forwhich the monthly empirical distribution functions are considered. The results clearly suggest more and longerheat wave occurrences in the region.

What is projected for heat warning levels in the Carpathian Basin by the end of the 21st century?

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Repository of the Academy's Library