PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS: EU CASE

Abstract

The global crisis has caused a serious fiscal deterioration that leaves the world economy with serious challenges. In many developed markets as well as in a few emerging markets (Emerging markets) public finances have already become, or are at least at risk of becoming, unsustainable. Commonly, public debt sustainability is defined as a sovereign's ability to service debt without large adjustments to public revenue and/or expenditure and without ever-increasing public-debt-to-GDP ratios. Hence, this definition refers to both a country\'s ability and willingness to repay its debt. We also have to add the fact that there isn`t an universal accepted definition of fiscal or debt sustainability. In light of the growing public debt, the issue of debt sustainability has increasingly attracted attention. In this paper we analyse public debt sustainability scenario in EU economies. At least half of the EU countries will have to implement stringent fiscal consolidation programmes over the next few years in order to prevent already high public-debt-to-GDP ratios from a further significant rise, also the case of Romania. However, drastic fiscal policy adjustment may be not feasible in the short term and hence public debt is likely to grow further. In some scenarios the public-debt-to-GDP ratio is predicted to soar to 133% in 2020, from just over 100% in 2010. By contrast, nearly all EM countries, including major economies, appear to be well positioned to stabilise or even outgrow their current debt ratios without drastic fiscal adjustment. Institutional improvements may help European countries to maintain fiscal credibility. In light of the future fiscal challenges, many European governments may introduce new or more effective national debt limits, similar to those put in place in the past with good results by some Emerging markets. Such institutional reforms could help to insulate fiscal policies from political pressure and to anchor financial market expectations.public debt, fiscal policy, fiscal sustainability, GDP, fiscal consolidation