FLUCTUATION IN PENSION FUND ASSETS PRIVATELY MANAGED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CERTAIN FACTORS. STATISTICAL STUDY IN ROMANIA

Abstract

On international level, the economic and financial crisis has determined a diminution of the asset value of compulsory pension funds, reflecting a reallocation of funds towards alternative or low-risk investments. The present paper indicates how the net asset value of privately managed pension funds in Romania may be affected or not by certain influence factors in direct correlation with different asset allocation strategies of pension funds. In this way, on literature review there are many studies which have analyzed the fluctuation of pension funds assets and a better reallocation of their investment in order to improve their efficiency. The experience of the value fluctuation of privately administered pension fund net assets is highly important, firstly beacause of its effects on the increase and the decrease of invested values for the insured personsâ€(tm) accounts, under the circumstances of constantly maintaining their contributions and, implicitly, the results achieved through these investments. The research methodology consists in testing of five variables: currency exchange rate, credit interest rate, bank deposit interest rate, reference interest rate and value of the stock exchange market index (BET-C index), by means of the multiple linear regression method. The conclusion is that only two of these factors, namely, the currency exchange rate and the reference interest rate, influence net asset value of privately managed pension funds, the second pillar, one in direct and the other in indirect correlation. In order to neutralize the effects generated by the diminution of the net asset value of privately managed pension funds, considering a short time horizon, we shall elaborate a dynamic mix of their investments able to adapt to the fluctuations of the influence factors. Thus, new opportunities will be generated in order to achieve the efficiency of pension funds and to prevent the diminution of the value of insured individualsâ€(tm) contributions to these pension funds.privately managed pensions, net assets, investments, factors of influence, statistical correlations