The Czech Economic Transition: Exploring Options Using a Macrosectoral Model

Abstract

The processes that will drive the next stage of the Czech transition are likely to be similar to those promoting real convergence in the EU cohesion countries. We draw on previous modelling research on the cohesion economies to construct and calibrate a small macrosectoral model of the Czech Republic that serves to highlight key policy issues facing CEE-country decision-makers. Four scenarios are then explored by simulation: the first projects the current pattern of disequilibrium wage setting into the future, while a second looks at the consequences of labour market reform. The other scenarios highlight some of the differences between policy strategies based on indigenous versus FDI-driven export-led growth.