Results are presented of a survey conducted to determine the current opinion of people working in air transportation demand forecasting on the future of air transportation over the next ten years. In particular, the survey included questions on future demand growth, load factor, fuel prices, introduction date for the next new aircraft, the priorities of problems facing air transportation, and the probability of a substantial change in air transportation regulation. The survey participants included: airlines, manufacturers, universities, government agencies, and other organizations (financial institutions, private research companies, etc.). The results are shown for the average responses within the organization represented as well as the overall averages

Williams, L. J.

Wilson, A.

English

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SURVEY OF PROJECTED GROWTH AND PROBLEMS FACING
AIR TRANSPORTATION , 1975-1985
Louis J. Williams and Ann Wilson
August 1975

SURVEY OF PROJECTED GROWTH AND PROBLEMS
FACING AIR TRANSPORTATION, 1975-1985
B^ Louis J. Williams and Aran Wilson
INTRODUCTION
This brief report presents the results of a survey con^jucted during
a workshop on "Transportation Demand and Systems Analysis," held June 2-4,
1975, in Washington, DC. The purpose of the survey was to determine
the current opinion of people working in air transportation demand
forecasting on the future of air transportation. In particular, the
survey included questions on future demand growth, load factor, fuel
prices, introduction date for the next new aircraft, and the priorities
of problems facing air transportation.
PARTICIPANTS
The survey participants included a good cross section of the organi-
zations involved in air transportation or air transportation research.
T:iere were 42 participants:	 12 from airlines, 8 from manufacturers, 9
from universities, 8 from government agencies, and 5 from other organiza-
tions (financial institutions, private research companies, etc.) A blank
survey form is included as attachment 1.
RESULTS
The results are shown for the average responses within the organiza-
tions represented as well as the overall averages. In most cases, the
results are shown in both tabular and graphical form.
I .
2GROWTH
The first six survey questions were on the projected average yearly
growth for various air transportation markets over the next 10 years,
197b-1985. The results of this section of the survey are given in Table I
and shown graphically in Figure 1. The overall averages and the average
responses according to affiliation are shown for growth rates in each of
the six transportation markets surveyed. The lowest growt^ rate, 5.3%
per year, was forecast for scheduled domestic air carrier revenue passenger
miles (RAM's). The highest growth rate, 12.2% per, year, was forecast
for international air cargo ton miles. For the purposes of this survey,
international ,s defined as including all air transportation other than
U.S. domestic service. The charter and air cargo markets were forecast
to grow considerably faster than the scheduled passenger market. It is
also interesting to note that all the government affiliated responses
were at the high or optimistic end of the scale and the airline affiliated
responses were at the low or conservative end of the scale.
LOAD FACTOR
The forecast average passenger load factor in 1985, for scheduled
domestic service is given in `able II. The average responses show an
expected increase to about 61 1X, in 1585. 711 i s compares with an average
value of 55.7% for the scheduled U.S. domestic trunk airlines in 1974
and 52.2% for the first six months of 1975.
w
As
3
FUEL K ICES
The forecast increases in domestic and international jet fuel
prices are given in Table III. The wide differences in the responses
reflect a great uncertainty with regard to future fuel prices. The
airline and "other" affiliated res ponses were most pessimistic, with the
airlines forecasting a doubling of 1975 fuel prices. The remaining	
I
participants were much less pessimistic and forecast much smaller
increases ranging from 16 to 34%. The overall average forecast a fuel
price increase of about 55% in both the domestic and international
markets.
NEW AIRCRAFT INTRODUCTION
The forecast year ;r introduction for the next new (non-derivative)
U.S. commercial transport aircraft is given in Table IV. The average
response according to affiliatico ranged from 1983 for the manufacturer
participants to 1987 for the university participants. The overall
average was 1985.
f
AIR TRANSPORTATION PROBLEM PRIORITIES
In this part of the survey, six transnortation problem areas were
listed and the survey p a rtici-	 :s were asked to rank then from 1 to 6
in order of decreasing concern (1 = highest priority, 6 = lowest priority).
4The transportation problems listed were emissions, noise, airside con-
gestion, ground access, fuel cost, and other costs. The number of
responses of each rank for these problems is shown in Figure 2. As
might be expected because of the wide range of responsibilities for
the participants, the results are quite varied. For example, with the	 i
exception of emissions, there were some responses ranking each of the
other problems as first p riority. The average responses according to
affiliation are given in Table V and shown gra phically in Figure 3.
The rank based on these averages is shown in Table VI.
The overall averages place the problems in order of the following
priorities:
	
(l) fuel cost, (2) ground access, (3) other costs,
(4) airside congestion, (5) noise, and (6) emissions. 	 The results
for fuel cost problem priority are consistent with the higher fore-
casts for fuel price increases, shown in Table III, by the airline
I	 '
and "other" participants. The government participants' second
p ri o rity ranki ig for aircraft noise reflects a much 	 '9r concern for
this problem relative to the others than that expresse, 	 the remain-
ing participants.
t
CAB RESTRUCTURING
This question addrp- c.es the possibility of a significant change
in the current form of air transportation regulation by the Civil
Aeronautics Board. Asked whether there would be a substantial
restructurin g
 of the CAB during the next ten years, 14 participants
(34%) answered yes, and 27 participants
5The results by c,ganizational affiliation are shown in Table VII.
As shown in this table, the university participants were unanimous in
answering no. The results from the other affiliations were mixed,
with the consensus of the airline and manufacturer participants being
no and the government and "other" participants being yes.
P#
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TABLE 11 - FORECAST PASSENGER LOAD FACTOR
SCHEDULED DOMESTIC SERVICE, 1985
AFFILIATION
NUMBER
OF
RESPONSES LOAU FACTOR,z
Airline 12 60.3
Manufacturer 8 61.1
University 9 61.3
Government 8 63.3
Other 5
42
59.4
61.1ALL
TABLE III - FORECAST FUEL PRICE INCREASE IN 1985
PLRCENT INCREASE IN CONSTA14T DOLLARS RELATIVE TO 1975
AFFILIATION
NUMBER
OF
RESPONSES
DOMESTIC
JET FUEL
PRICE
INTERNATIONAL
JET FUEL PRICE
Airline 12 100.5 112.6
Mar ufacturer 8 30.3 23.1
University 9 24.7 11.0
Government 8 29.0 33.9
Other 5 69.6 92.5
ALL 42 53.6 56.4
xv
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I	 I	 I	 I	 I	 l
TABLE IV - FORECAST YEAR OF INTRODUCTION FOR NEXT NEW U.S.
COMMERCIh, TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT
(Pon-Derivative Model)
AFFILIATION
NUMBER
OF
RESPONSES YEAR
Airline 12 1985
Manufacturer 8 1983
University 9 1987
Government 8 1985
Other 4
42
1985*
ALL 1985
*One response of 2050 not included.
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AFFILIATION YES NO
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Attachment 1
DE'•1AN'D rnRF:c^ ,;'r1 NC sw1 x' 'Y
(fill in the binn; s.)
Ave. Yearly Growth Rnte
Over Next Ten Years
1) Scheduled	 Coliestic	 Air	 Carrier	 Passenger	 1 .1iles %
2) Charter Domestic	 ,Air	 Carrier	 Passenger	 "Miles
3) Domestic Air	 Cargo	 Ton	 Milcs
d) Scheduled international	 Air	 Carrier	 Passenger	 'Tiles	 %
(E.verythin other	 than	 U.S.	 Domestic)
S) Charter International	 Air	 Carrier	 Passenger	 rules
6) International Air	 Cargo Ten	 Miles `o
7) Average Scheduled	 Domestic	 Load	 Factor	 in	 1985 s
8) Increase in	 198S	 Domestic	 jet	 Fuel	 Price	 Relative to
Today's Prices	 (in	 constant	 collars)
9) Increase in	 11185	 international	 Jet	 Fuel	 Price
Relative to	 Today's	 Prices	 (in	 constant	 dollars)
10) Initial Year	 of	 Introduction	 in	 Service	 of	 the	 Next
New	 U.S. Commercial	 Transport	 Aircraft	 (Non-Derivative
Model)
11) Priorities of	 Problems	 for	 PAN P1^2(lm ri
Air Transportation
Emissions
(1 =	 worst	 problem) Noise
(6 -	 least	 problem) Airside	 Congest_icn
Groutiid	 Access
Fuel	 Cost
• Other	 Costs
i'+
12)	 A Substantial Restructurin g, of the CAP.
during the next ten ,year:.?
131
	
Your affiliation
(check one)	 Airline
Manufacturer
Airport Operator
YES	 NO
University
Government
---	 Other


Survey of projected growth and problems facing air transportation, 1975 - 1985

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