External factors in emerging market recoveries: an empirical investigation.

Abstract

We estimate conditional duration models to analyse recovery processes in emerging market economies. Our reduced fonn specification is parsimonious, as we focus on the effect of growth in the US, EU, and Japan on the prospects for recovery in emerging market economies experiencing recessions. In order to assess the robustness and forecasting capability of our results, we perfonned out-of-sample predictions using recently available data pertaining to the economies hit by the Asis crisis. The model successfully predicts the bouncing back of most emerging market economies hit by the Asian crisis, and confinns the importance of external factor in recovery processes.Emerging markets; Recessions; Duration; IS-LM;