"To end hunger and prevent the recurrence of famine and starvation, we need to take the following steps: invest in public health, child nutrition, education, women's and girls' social status, and other components of human capital; reform public institutions and create innovative funding and partnership arrangements; change government policies at all levels to be both pro-poor and pro-growth; increase funding for scientific and technological research to boost agricultural production and efficiency; and develop specific policies and institutions to deal with environmental degradation caused by population growth. The international community, national governments, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the private sector must cooperate to bring about these changes, which reach beyond redistribution programs, narrowly focused market-oriented solutions, or campaigns based solely on local self-reliance." from text

Pardey, Philip G.

Rosegrant, Mark W.

Runge, C. Ford

Senauer, Benjamin

English

Research Papers in Economics

ENDING HUNGER BY 2050 
Crucial Investments and Policies
H
uman endeavor has
realized countless
feats that once
seemed pure fantasy.
We can talk to each other on small,
portable phones whether we’re
stranded in traffic or on a remote
mountaintop. We can send electronic
mail messages anywhere in the 
world in seconds. We can propel
ourselves far off into space to
explore the earth’s solar system.
But we cannot seem to solve the
problem of human hunger.
C. Ford Runge, Benjamin Senauer, Philip G. Pardey, and Mark W. Rosegrant
INTERNATIONAL FOOD
POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty
IFPRI
®To end hunger and prevent the recurrence of
famine and starvation, we need to take the fol-
lowing steps:
• invest in public health,child nutrition,edu-
cation,women’s and girls’ social status,and
other components of human capital;
• reform public institutions and create inno-
vative funding and partnership arrange-
ments;
• change government policies at all levels to
be both pro-poor and pro-growth;
• increase funding for scientific and techno-
logical research to boost agricultural pro-
duction and efficiency;and
• develop specific policies and institutions to deal with envi-
ronmental degradation caused by population growth.
The international community,national governments,nongovern-
mental organizations (NGOs),and the private sector must coop-
erate to bring about these changes,which reach beyond redistri-
bution programs,narrowly focused market-oriented solutions,or
campaigns based solely on local self-reliance.
THE CHALLENGE
Hunger in a Prosperous World
Today’s supply of food is more than enough for everyone.Yet
hunger is not solely a distribution problem because no mecha-
nism exists—nor is it ever likely to—to continuously redistrib-
ute massive amounts of food worldwide. People lack access to
food largely because of poverty, political disadvantage, or war.
These causes of hunger are reinforced by other unequal out-
comes, such as the lopsided distribution of economic gains
from globalization.
As the world’s population continues to grow,shortages and
degradation of both land and water will challenge the sustainabil-
ity of the global food system.How can we face these environ-
mental pressures,while still responding to the food needs of
poor people,who consume more as they emerge from poverty?
In this daunting context,the key environmental issues facing
policymakers are:
• Continued population growth—According to the United
Nations,the current world population of just over 6 billion is
expected to reach 7.9 billion by 2050 under a low-fertility
scenario.All of this increase is expected to occur in the
developing world,deepening poverty and susceptibility to
hunger and increasing pressure on natural resources.
• Creation of “dead zones” in our precious water-
ways—Research by David Tilman and colleagues at the
University of Minnesota projects that increased use of fertil-
izers needed to increase food production will starve lakes
and rivers of oxygen,thereby limiting biodiversity and chang-
ing species composition.
• Accumulation of agricultural pesticides in the food
chain—Global pesticide use is projected to increase by 170
percent over current levels by 2050. Agricultural pesticides
accumulate in the human food chain and can adversely affect
human and animal health.
• Loss of biodiversity—Forests,grasslands,and other natural
systems are being converted to agricultural land use,which is
expected to increase by 18 percent by 2050.The consequent
loss of biodiversity will be particularly acute in Latin
America and Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Water scarcity—Lack of water is the most serious environ-
mental constraint on global food production. Increased
demand for nonagricultural water use,in addition to underin-
vestment in water supplies and management,will further
complicate the situation.
These problems make the task of ending hunger even more
complex.
Figure 1  Number of hungry people
R
oughly 800 million people are chronically undernourished today—three times
the population of the United States (Figure 1). Despite our dispiriting track
record, research gives us reason to expect a more just future.
By following a challenging prescription for concrete actions and policy changes,
outlined in Ending Hunger in Our Lifetime: Food Security and Globalization,a  n e w
book from IFPRI and The Johns Hopkins University Press, world hunger could be
substantially reduced by 2025 and chronic, mass hunger ended by 2050.
1,200
Millions
1,000
800
East and
Southeast
Asia
1969–71 average 1996–98 average
Latin
America
Middle
East/North
Africa
South
Asia
Sub-
Saharan
Africa
Source: FAO and World Bank.
All
developing
regions
600
400
200
0THE SOLUTIONS
Priorities, Investments, and
Innovation
INVESTING IN PEOPLE
I
nvesting in human capital is a strategy that puts people first.
Investments should focus on education,health,and children’s
nutrition.
Education is often the link that breaks the pattern of low income
and no assets—a self-reinforcing cycle that is passed from gener-
ation to generation.The need for education is critical for women
and girls.Investments in female education have high payoffs in
terms of economic productivity,lower fertility rates,and
women’s ability to improve the health and nutrition of their chil-
dren.Research also shows that when women have more educa-
tion,they use their increased earnings to pay for more and bet-
ter food and schooling for their children.Women’s education is
the most significant factor in reducing child malnutrition,along
with food availability (Figure 2).
Sickness can lead to loss of household income and reduced child
caring.On a large scale,it can significantly decrease gross domes-
tic product (GDP).Preventative health programs are the most
cost-effective approach to better health,especially for children.
Proactive measures include school-based health services,immu-
nizations,and access to safe drinking water.
In Africa,and perhaps in Asia in the near future,fighting
HIV/AIDS is imperative in confronting hunger and poverty.By
killing young adults,who comprise the majority of the workforce
and are the primary earners of nonfarm income,HIV/AIDS dra-
matically reduces household income,food,goods,and services.
HIV/AIDS has created exorbitant healthcare costs,labor short-
ages,a declining asset base,downgraded crops,and loss of live-
stock,all of which contribute to food insecurity.
INVESTING IN SCIENCE
N
ew technology is a major force behind increased agricultur-
al productivity. A study of 35 countries by C.Peter Timmer
found that a 1 percent increase in agricultural GDP led to a 1.6
percent increase in the per capita incomes of the poorest peo-
ple. Agricultural productivity gains brought about by research
and new technology lead directly to higher incomes for peasant
farming and landless rural households,the two groups that make
up the majority of the poor.
Research and technology also help prevent environmental degra-
dation.New pest-resistant biotechnologies,for example,may sta-
bilize or reduce pesticide use.Higher crop yields due to 
improved farming systems can limit the expansion of agricultural
production to forests and the loss of biodiversity (Figure 3).
The core components of a sustainable agricultural growth strategy
are technological change that increases output and lowers produc-
tion costs,investment in rural infrastructure (such as roads) that
reduces transportation costs,widespread participation in agricul-
tural markets by smallholding peasant producers and women farm-
ers,and significant reforms in natural resource management.
Because technical advancement is so essential to the struggle
against hunger,the slowdown in agricultural research investments
worldwide must be reversed.Throughout the 1990s,budgets for
agricultural research either declined or stalled. For example,the
United States Agency for International Development cut grants
to government agricultural research agencies by 80 percent
between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s.
In addition to reappropriating funds for research,decisions
regarding how funds are disbursed,how they are used,and how
long they are available are crucial.Governments must deliberately
address the needs of poor farmers so that the benefits of agricul-
tural technology development reach them because private-sector
research typically does not take them into account.For R&D
strategies to work optimally,nonprofit research must be revital-
ized,significantly more agricultural biodiversity must be preserved,
and governments and civil society must be willing to confront the
controversial issues of biotechnology and intellectual property.
Figure 2
Sources of agricultural production
growth, 1961–2000
Women’s education
Health environment
National food availability
Women’s status
11.6%
43.0%
19.3%
26.1%
Source: Smith and Haddad,Overcoming Child Malnutrition in Developing
Countries (IFPRI,2000).
Asia Latin
America
and the
Caribbean
Sub-
Saharan
Africa
Middle
East/
North
Africa
World
Percent
120
100
60
80
40
20
0
Yield Area
Source: Compiled by authors based on data from FAO.
Note: Area represents area in agriculture and counts multiple cropped areas
as a single unit within a cropping season.
Share of reduction in child malnutrition
attributed to underlying variables,
1970–95
Figure 3INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY 
RESEARCH INSTITUTE
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Email: ifpri@cgiar.org  •  Web: www.ifpri.org
E
nding hunger in our lifetime requires a multilateral response
to food security—one built on the international institutions
created after World War II. However,these institutions must
reinvent themselves to create new,more relevant ways and
means of doing business that are appropriate to the global
nature of today’s food security issues.The World Bank,the Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,and the
World Health Organization must modernize quickly to match
the pace of change in the world outside them.For example,the
World Bank should focus on food-insecure countries and pro-
vide direct technical support and grants to improve food securi-
ty.The Bank could accomplish this by yielding the responsibility
of lending to middle-income countries to the private sector. A
new international organization to address the environmental
dimensions of global food production is also needed.
Key reforms include:
• new national agricultural and trade policies—such as the
removal of trade barriers—that reflect growing interdepen-
dencies among nations;
• coordination among national governments to respond to
transnational challenges,including a secure supply of food;
• agreement through the World Trade Organization to elimi-
nate agricultural protectionism by wealthy countries,enabling
developing countries to compete in the global market;and
• creation of a consolidated network of NGOs and a new
body of private foundations dedicated to assisting poor
nations,with a focus on improving food security.
INNOVATIVE POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONAL REFORM
T
o end hunger in our lifetime,a comprehensive set of invest-
ment priorities is required:education,health,agricultural
research,irrigation and water management,rural infrastructure,
institutional reforms,and the creation of entirely new institutions.
How much funding will be needed and where will it come from?
The World Bank estimates that an annual increase in aid of $40
to $60 billion (roughly double the current level of aid) will be
required to reach the United Nations’ Millennium Development
Goals by 2015.That initiative seeks to cut extreme poverty in half
and make substantial improvements in education and health in the
developing world.The developing countries themselves will invest
much of this amount.But the remaining portion will have to
come from the international community. There are five primary
sources of funding for global food security:
• governments (and thereby the citizens) of developing countries;
• remittances from developing-country citizens working abroad;
• foreign assistance by the world’s wealthier developed nations;
• private international capital flows in the form of targeted for-
eign direct investment;and
• global philanthropy.
Promoting hunger eradication as an “international public
good”—an objective that benefits everyone—is key to building
the will and financial support to make it happen.
INVESTING FOR A HUNGER-FREE WORLD
In a world of unprecedented wealth,the persistence of wide-
spread,chronic hunger is unacceptable. Although ending food
insecurity will be an enormous task in itself,the greater challenge
may be complacency,indifference,and a lack of political commit-
ment.In the words of Amartya Sen,winner of the 1998 Nobel
Prize in economics:
The contemporary age is not short of terrible and nasty
happenings,but the persistence of extensive hunger in a
world of unprecedented prosperity is surely one of the
worst…Massive endemic hunger causes great misery in
many parts of the world…debilitating hundreds of millions
and killing a sizable proportion of them with statistical regu-
larity. What makes this widespread hunger even more of a
tragedy is the way we have come to accept and tolerate it
as an integral part of the modern world,as if it [were]...
unpreventable.
With appropriate investments,innovations,and institutions,we
can end chronic hunger in our lifetime.Widespread hunger is
preventable.
SOCIAL JUSTICE AND THE MORAL IMPERATIVE
Photograph on cover of book © Sebastião Salgado (Contact Press Images)
Photograph on p. 2  © 1996 World Bank / Curt Carnemark

Ending hunger by 2050

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